As always, we are  on hand with all the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races. Use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

Uttoxeter Horse Racing Trends

2.25 - 1834 Novices' Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV

13/16 – Aged 8 or younger
13/16 – Carried 10-9 or more
11/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
10/16 – Had won over at least 3m (chases) before
10/16 – Placed last time out
10/16 – Never raced at Uttoxeter before
10/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Returned 7/1 or less
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
8/16 – Aged 7 years-old
5/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Alan King
2/16 – Trained by Harry Fry (two of last three runnings)
2/16 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/16 – Winning favourites
De Rasher Counter (4/1) won the race in 2019

3.00 - Burton Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV

Only 8 Previous Runnings
7/8 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
6/8 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
3/8 – Winning favourites
3/8 – Aged 8 years-old
Poker Play (16/1) won the race in 2019

3.35 - Marston's 61 Deep Midlands Grand National Chase Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 4m1f110y ITV

15/16 – Aged 9 or younger
14/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
14/16 – Carried 10-12 or less
14/16 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/16 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
12/16 – Won by an Irish bred horse
12/16 – Had never run at Uttoxeter before
12/16 – Unplaced favourites
11/16 – Officially rated 135 or less
10/16 – Carried 10-9 or less
10/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/16 – Returned a double-figure-price in the betting
8/16 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
8/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Trained by David Pipe
3/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/16 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 11.6/1

Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends

2.40 – Paddy Power Silver Plate Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m5f ITV

Only 6 previous runnings
Nicky Henderson has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
No winning favourite yet from the last 6 runnings
5 of last 6 previous winners carried 11-12 or more
Wicked Willy (20/1) won the race in 2019

3.15 – Paddy Power Silver Bowl (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 2m4f110y ITV

Only 6 previous running
1 winning favourite (co) from the last 6 runnings
5 of the last 6 winners carried 11-2 or more
Trainers Charlie Longsdon, Venetia William, Tom George, Ian Williams, Paul Nicholls, Tom George and Jonjo O’Neill have won the race so far
Forth Bridge (7/1) won the race in 2019

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We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!

DAY FOUR: Friday 13th March 2020

13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle   2m 1f

2019 Winner: PENTLAND HILLS (20/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses…..

• 20 of the last 26 winners won last time out
• 7 of the last 11 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• Irish have won 4 of the last 7 runnings
• French-breds have filled 9 of the last 15 places (last 5 runnings)
• 11 of the last 15 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 10 of the last 12 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
• Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, Hobbs and King-trained runners
• 7 of the last 16 first ran over hurdles by November (5 of the last 8 by mid-Nov)
• 10 of the last 14 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
• The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
• 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles last time
• 6 of the last 11 winners had run in France before
• Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
• Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 2 seconds in the last 6 years

Negatives….

• Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
• Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
• Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
• Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 12
• Willie Mullins has a poor record – currently 0-from-27

14:10 Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle   2m 1f

2020 Winner: CH’TIBELLO (12/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton

Pluses….

• The Irish have won 8 of the last 13 runnings
• 4 of the last 12 winners ran in that season’s Coral.ie Hurdle (Leopardsotwn)
• 13 of the last 14 winners were rated in the 130’s
• 7 of the last 12 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
• 5 of the last 11 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
• 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 12 of the last 14 winners were priced in double-figures
• 12 of the last 16 winners began their careers on the flat
• Look for Mullins, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
• Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
• 9 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
• 10 of the last 19 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
• 13 of the last 16 winners were 1^st or 2^nd season hurdlers
• 11 of the last 13 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• Paul Nicholls is 4 from 28 (+18pts)
• Willie Mullins is 4 from 33 (+46pts)
• Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 3 of the last 4 renewals (last 2)

Negatives….

• Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
• Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
• Since 1961, only 9 winners had run at the Festival before
• Since 2005, just one winner rated 140+ (146 runners)
• Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
• Avoid horses making their handicap debuts

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle   3m

2019 Winner: MINELLA INDO (50/1)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

Pluses….

• 9 of the last 15 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
• 14 of the last 15 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
• All of the last 15 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
• 5 of the last 8 winners had won a Point
• 8 of the last 15 came from the top 5 in the betting
• 9 of the last 15 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
• 13 of the last 15 had run in a race over 3m
• 12 of the last 15 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 12 of the last 15 winners were 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 11 of the last 15 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
• 13 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 4 of the last 14 favourites won
• Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins)

Negatives….

• Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
• Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
• Willie Mullins is 1 from 35 in the race
• 5 year-olds have a poor record
• Only 4 of the last 15 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

15:30 Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase   3m 2½f

2019 Winner: AL BOUM PHOTO (12/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses….

• 16 of the last 20 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
• 17 of the last 19 finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 17 of the last 20 winners were 2^nd or 3^rd season chasers
• 10 of the last 14 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
• All of the last 20 winners were Grade 1 winners
• 15 of the last 19 had won or placed at the Festival before
• 16 of the last 19 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
• 18 of the last 19 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
• 11 of the last 12 winners ran 3 or less times that season
• 16 of the last 23 winners were bred in Ireland
• 11 of the last 14 winners won last time out
• 5 of the last 14 favourites won
• ALL of the last 20 winners were aged 9 or younger
• Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record

Negatives….

• Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
• No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 71)
• Horses rated 166 or less are only 5 from last 33
• Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
• Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
• Willie Mullins has only won the race once (2019), 1 from 30 (had last 4 of the last 7 seconds and the 2019 winner though)
• Only 2 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
• Just 1 of the last 12 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
• Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well

16:10 St James’ Place Foxhunter Chase   3m 2½f

2019 Winner: HAZEL HILL (7/2 fav)
Trainer – Philip Rowley
Jockey – Mr Alex Edwards

Pluses…..

• 25 of the last 29 winners were aged under 11 years-old
• 25 of the last 34 won last time out
• 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
• 8 of the last 11 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
• 27 of the last 31 started out in point-to-point races
• 11 of the last 14 winners ran 34 days or less ago
• Respect the Irish runners (won 6 of last 9)
• 5 of the last 8 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
• 9 of the last 14 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
• 8 of the last 11 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
• 11 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 9 of the last 10 winners rated 134 or higher (6 of last 7, rated 138+)

Negatives….

• Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
• Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
• Just 2 winners in the last 43 years aged 12 or older
• 26 of the last 28 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
• Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
• Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
• Just 1 winner since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
• Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 236 since 1990
• Just 3 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase   2m ½f

2019 Winner: CROCO BAY (66/1)
Trainer – Ben Case
Jockey – Kielan Woods

Pluses….

• 16 of the last 20 winners carried 11st or less
• 14 of the last 16 winners had run at the Festival before
• 8 of the last 16 winners ran in the previous renewal
• Irish have won 3 of the last 7 runnings
• 8 of the last 10 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 11 of the last 16 winners were aged 8 or older
• Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 9 placed)
• The last 9 winners were rated at least 138
• 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
• Novices have won 5 of the last 11 runnings
• 6 of the last 9 winners were rated between 140-147
• 7 of the last 9 winners carried 10-11 or more in weight
• 18 of the last 20 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

• Horses aged 10+ are just 2 win from the last 24 runnings
• Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 7 winners since 1990
• Last time out winners are just 1 from last 14
• Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 28 since 2005
• Just 2 winners rated 147+ since 1992
• Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle   2m 4½f

2019 Winner: EARLY DOORS (5/1)
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – Jonjo O’Neill

Pluses….

• 10 of the last 11 winners were 2^nd season-hurdlers
• 8 of the last 9 winners placed in the top 3 last time
• All of the last 11 winners carried 11-1 or more
• 10 of the last 11 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
• 4 of the last 6 winners were Irish-based Novices
• Irish have won 6 of the last 9 (5 making handicap debuts)
• 31 of the 33 win and place horses were 1^st or 2^nd season hurdlers
• Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
• 9 of the 11 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
• 5 of the 11 winners won last time out
• 5 of the last 6 winners had run over a longer trip that season
• 7 of the 11 winners were rated 133-139
• 7 of the 11 winners returned at a double-figure price (9 of the last 11 were 16/1 or less)
• 5 and 6 year-old have won 10 of last 11 runnings
• Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
• Willie Mullins is 3 from 16 runners in the race (won 3 of the last 9 runnings)
• Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
• Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 7 years
• Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 3 runnings

Negatives….

• Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 19, inc 3 favs)
• Just 1 winning fav in the 11-year history (7/10 returned in double-figures)
• Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 54
• Only 3 winners have previous Festival experience
• Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-87

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NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4/RacingTV)

**NOTE** - Newbury's Saturday card has been called off due to a waterlogged track

2.05 – William Hill Supporting Greatwood Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 3 of Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m2f110y ITV4

9/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
8/10 – Aged 10 years-old
8/10 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
6/10 – Favourites unplaced
5/10 – Carried 11-4 or more in weight
4/10 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
2/10 – Won their last race
1/10 – Winning favourites
Carole’s Destrier (6/1) won the race in 2019
Trainer David Pipe won the race in 2015 and 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 6 renewals is 6/1

3.15– William Hill Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f ITV4

15/16 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
14/16 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
13/16 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
13/16 – Won over this trip previously
11/16 – Officially rated 139 or higher
11/16 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
8/16 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
8/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/16 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/16 – Favourites  to win (1 joint)
3/16 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
2/16 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/16 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4/RacingTV)

1.50 – 888Sport Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m96y ITV4

Only 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Aged 9 or younger
6/7 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/7 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Finished 4^th or better last time out
6/7 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
6/7 – Irish bred
5/7 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
5/7 – Favourites place in the top two
4/7 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
4/7 – Ran at Doncaster (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
3/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Aged 9 years-old
2/7 – Won last time out

2.25 – 888Sport Bet £10 Get £30 Handicap Chase Cl2 2m90y ITV4

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
6/8 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
5/8 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
5/8 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
3/8 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
2/8 – Trained by Brian Ellison
2/8 – Trained by Paul Nicholls

3.00 – 888Sport Take ‘Em On Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m96y ITV4

6 previous runnings
6/6– Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
5/6 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
5/6 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/6 – Favourites placed in the top 2
5/6 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
3/6 - Won by the favourite (1 co-fav)
3/6 – Irish bred

3.35 – 888Sport Grimthorpe Chase (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f ITV4

15/15 – Aged 8 or older
14/15 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/15 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
12/15 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
11/15 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/15 – Aged 9 or older
10/15 – From the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Rated 131 or less
9/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/15 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (3 winners)
7/15 – Won their last race
7/15 – Irish bred
4/15 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
2/15 – Favourites
8 year-olds have won 3 of the last 5 runnings
Chidswell won the race in 2019
Definitely Red won this race in 2017

KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

2.45 – William Hill Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4 yo+) 2m2f ITV4

10/11 – Aged 7 or younger
10/11 – Favourites placed in the top three
10/11 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
9/11 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Had won at least twice over hurdles before
6/11 – Won last time out
6/11 – Had raced at Kelso before
5/11 – Irish bred
3/11 – Winning favourite
3/11 – Ran at Musselburgh last time out
2/11 – Trained by Lucinda Russell

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With the ITV cameras covering some of last week's lost races we've now 10 contests to take in from Ascot, Haydock, Wincanton and even  heading over to Ireland for the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park.

So, to help narrow down the fields, and point you in the direction of a few winners, then we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – we hope they help!

ASCOT HORSE RACING TRENDS (ATR/ITV)

1.50 - Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV4

17/17 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
15/17 – Had run within the last 7 weeks
14/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Won last time out
10/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (2 winners)
9/17 – Winners that went onto finish 5^th or better in the RSA Chase
8/17 – Placed favourites
7/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/17 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill

Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park

2.25 – Keltbray Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV4

Only 9 previous runnings
9/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Finished 5^th or better last time out
8/9 – Aged 8 or older
7/9 – Won 1 or 2 chase races previously
7/9 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
6/9 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
6/9 – Had raced at Ascot (fences) before
5/9 – Aged in double-figures
4/9 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/9 – Irish bred
4/9 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
3/9 – Winning distance head or shorter
2/9 – Won last time out
2/9 – Winning Favourites
5 of the last 7 winners carried 11-0 or more
Regal Encore won the race in 2018 and was third in 2019.

3.00 Give The Gift Of Ascot Annual Membership Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3 1/2f ITV4

13/14 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
12/14 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
10/14 – Winning distance – 1 1/2 or less
9/14 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/14 – Had won over 2m4f or further before
8/14 – Carried 10-12 or less
8/14 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/14 – Winners that went onto race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/14 – Placed favourites
6/14 – Priced 9/1 or bigger
6/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/14 – Irish bred
5/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/14 – Had run at Ascot over hurdles before
3/14 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
3/14 – Raced at Sandown last time out
2/14 – Trained by Dr Richard Newland
2/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls

3.35 - Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110y ITV4

17/17 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
16/17– Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
15/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
14/17 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
14/17 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
13/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
13/17 – Favourites placed
13/17 – Officially rated 157 or higher
11/17 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
11/17 – Favourites that won
8/17 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
7/17 – Unplaced in their latest race
7/17 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
6/17 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
6/17 – Won their last race
5/17 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (1 winner, Cue Card) later that year
3/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by Alan King
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
10 of the last 13 winners returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park
Waiting Patiently won this race in 2018, Cyrname won the race in 2019

HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4)

2.05 – Unibet Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV4

16/17 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/17 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
11/17 – Rated 145 or higher
11/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
11/17 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
10/17 – Aged 8 or younger
10/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
8/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle (no winners)
8/17 – Had run at Haydock before
6/17 – French-bred
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
1/17 – Winning favourites
1/17 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival

Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 - Run at Kempton Park

3.15 – Unibet Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV4

17/17 – UK-based trained winners
17/17 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
15/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
14/17 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
14/17 – Aged 10 or younger
13/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
13/17 – Rated 135 or higher
12/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Carried 11-0 or less
9/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
7/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
7/17 – Irish-bred winners
4/17 – Winners that won by exactly 15 lengths
4/17 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/17 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/17 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/17 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Venetia Williams
4 of the last 5 winners returned 8/1 in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/1

WINCANTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4)

2.45 - Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV4

16/16 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/16 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
14/16 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
12/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
12/16 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
10/16 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/16 – Rated 155 or higher
8/16 – Winning favourites
8/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Raced at Sandown last time out
4/16 – Trained by Alan King
1/16 – Winners that went onto win the World Hurdle (Inglis Drever)

GOWRAN PARK TRENDS

2.54 – Red Mills Chase (Grade 2) 2m4f

11/11 – Had won over at least 2m4f (Chase) before
11/11 – Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
10/11 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Irish bred
8/11 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Aged 8 or younger
8/11 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/11 – Winning favourites
6/11 – Rated 150 or lower
4/11 – Raced at Thurles last time out
3/11 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/11 – Ridden by Paul Townend

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DAY THREE: Thursday 12th March 2020

13:30 Marsh Novices' Chase   2m 4f

2019 Winner: DEFI DU SEUIL 3/1 fav
Trainer – Philip Hobbs
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

Pluses….

• 7 of the 9 winners were Irish-trained
• The last 9 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 9 winners
• 7 of the last 9 winners had won a Graded Chase before
• 7 of the last 9 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
• 8 of the last 9 past winners had run at the Festival before (4 had won)
• 8 of the 9 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 7 of the last 9 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
• 8 of the last 9 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 8 of the last 9 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
• 7 of the last 9 winners won last time out
• 5 of the last 9 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
• 6 of the last 9 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
• 7 year-olds have won 6 of last 9 renewals

Negatives….

• Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
• Just two British-trained winners so far
• The top-rated horse is just 1 from 9
• Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
• 4 winning favourites in 9 runnings (1 co)
• Just 1 of the last 9 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
• Just 1 winner had been off for more than 54 days

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle   3m

2019 Winner: SIRE DU BERLAIS 4/1 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

Pluses….

• 8 of the last 10 winners started their careers in bumpers (6) or points (2)
• Irish have won the last 4 runnings
• 9 of the last 12 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
• 10 of the last 19 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
• The last 9 winners were rated 138 or higher
• 9 of the last 13 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
• The last 9 winners were rated between 138-148
• 9 of the last 15 winners had won over at least 2m7f
• 10 of the last 13 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
• 8 of the last 19 winners won their last race
• 3 of the last 11 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
• Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 too
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won the last two runnings
• Jockey Davy Russell has ridden 3 of the last 4 winners

Negatives….

• Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
• Horses that have won 3+ times that season are just 1 from 10
• Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
• 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
• French-bred horses are currently on a run of 2-86
• All horses rated 150+ since 2000 have failed to finish in the top 2
• 2 winning favourites in last 14 years
• Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 18 (One third and two 2nds in the last 6 runnings)
• Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 41

14:50 Ryanair Chase   2m 5f

2019 Winner: FRODON (9/2)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Bryony Frost

Pluses….

• 21 of the 29 winners and runners-up had won at the course before
• 6 of the last 7 winners were 2^nd season chasers
• 13 of the last 15 had won at Cheltenham previously
• 9 of the last 12 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
• The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 26)
• The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
• 12 of the last 15 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
• 7 of the last 8 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
• 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 161+
• 4 of the last 15 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
• 11 of last 15 winners were fav or 2^nd fav
• 7 of the last 8 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
• Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
• Respect first time headgear (2 from 8)
• 8 of the last 12 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• Last 6 winners were French-bred

Negatives….

• The Irish are 3 from 51 runners in this race
• Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
• Avoid horses aged 11 or older
• Just one winner rated 160 or below
• Just 4 of the last 12 won last time out
• All winners ran 4 or less times that season
• No winner was having their Festival debut

15:30 Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle 3m

2019 Winner: PAISLEY PARK (11/8 fav)
Trainer – Emma Lavelle
Jockey – Aidan Coleman

Pluses….

• 11 of the last 15 won last time out
• 11 of the last 19 winners were second season hurdlers
• 27 of the last 30 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
• 17 of the last 19 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 8 of the last 18 were French Bred
• Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
• 15 of the last 18 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd in all their hurdling runs that season
• 13 of the last 15 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
• Respect past winners of the race
• 15 of the last 23 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles

Negatives….

• Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1^st or 2^nd last time out (2 from 20)
• A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
• Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
• Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
• Avoid front runners
• The Irish are have won the race just three times since 1995
• Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
• Previous Albert Bartlett winners have an overall poor record (1 from 16)
• Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 67
• Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 55)

16:10 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate   2m 5f

2019 Winner: SIRUH DU LAC (9/2)
Trainer – Nick Williams
Jockey – Lizzie Kelly

Pluses….

• 27 of the last 32 winners were officially rated 141 or less
• 10 of the last 11 winners carried under 11-0
• Look out for French-breds
• 10 of the last 16 winners had won a race in Feb or March
• Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
• The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 22 runnings
• 16 of the last 19 winners returned at double-figure odds
• 20 of the last 28 winners had run at the Festival before (but 7 of last 9 were having Festival debut)
• 19 of the last 20 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• 7 of the last 10 winners had 9 or less chase runs
• 17 of the last 20 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market

Negatives….

• Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
• The Irish have only sent out 4 winners since 1951
• 2 winning favourites in the last 14 years
• Only 3 of last 25 won with 11st+
• Winners of a chase at Cheltenham before have an overall poor record, but the 2019 winner did defy this trend.
• Only 2 of the last 16 winners hadn’t run that calendar year

16:50 Daylesford Mares’ Novices Hurdle 2m1f

2019 Winner: EGLANTINE DU SEUIL 50/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Noel Fehily

• A new race (Just four renewals)
• Favourites have won 3 of the four runnings
• 3 of the last 4 winners won last time out 3 of the 4 winners were French-bred
• 3 of the 4 winners were unbeaten that season
• Sullivan Bloodstock owners have won 2 of the 4 runnings (just 3 runners)
• All four winners have been aged 5 years-old
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019
• Owner Rich Ricci has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase   3m 1½f

2019 Winner: ANY SECOND NOW (6/1)
Trainer – Ted Walsh
Jockey – Mr Derek O’Connor

Pluses….

• Respect 8 and 9 year-olds
• 9 of the last 12 winners failed to win earlier that season
• 3 of the last 9 winners ran in the BetVictor Handicap Chase (Open Meeting)
• The last 8 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
• 7 of the last 10 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
• 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
  8 of the last 11 winners ran in February
• Look for McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
• Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
• 18 of the last 20 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
• Look for non-claiming amateur riders
• 8 of the last 9 winners wore headgear
• 9 of the last 11 winners came from the top 6 in the market
• Jockey Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 11 winners
• Jockey Derek O’Connor 2^nd 3 times and 1^st in 2019
  Owner JP McManus often does well in the race

Negatives….

• Just three Irish winners for 36 years (but have won 3 of the last 6)
• Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
• Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 21
• Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race
• Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
• French breds are 0 from 59 since 2005
• Avoid claiming jockeys – 1 from 89 since 2009
• Just 1 of the last 17 winners won last time out

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DAY TWO: Wednesday 11th March 2020

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle   2m 5f

2019 Winner: CITY ISLAND 8/1
Trainer –Martin Brassil
Jockey – Mark Walsh

Pluses….

• 13 of the last 15 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 4 of the last 6 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• 9 of the last 11 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
• 15 of the last 19 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
• 19 of the last 25 winners won last time out
• 24 of the last 25 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• The Irish have won 10 of the last 17 (5 of last 6)
• Horses rated 150+ do well
• The last 10 winners all won at least one bumper race
• All of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• In the last 9 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 15 of the 27 top 3 places
• 19 of the last 21 were NH bred
• 13 of the last 21 had won a graded race before
• Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (6 of the last 10 had won an Irish Point)
• Respect Willie Mullins – 4 winners and 7 placed in last 15 years

Negatives….

• Only one winner aged older than 6 has won since 1974
• Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
• Horses aged 7 or older are 0 from 55 (since 1988)
• Only two of the last 34 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• The last 17 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
• Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 14 years)

14:10 RSA Chase   3m ½f

2019 Winner: TOPOFTHEGAME 4/1
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden

Pluses….

• 4 of the last 11 winners ran in the Flogas Chase (Leopardstown, 4^th Feb) that season
• The last 18 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
• 23 of the last 25 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
• Respect 7 year-olds – won 11 of the last 13 (16 of last 20)
• 9 of the last 14 winners won last time out
• 7 of the last 10 winners were beaten on their chase debut
• 7 of the last 12 winners had won a bumper before
• 6 of the last 13 favourites won (50%)
• Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
• Irish bred horses are 19 from the last 23
• 8 of the last 13 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
• 6 of the last 11 winners were trained in Ireland
• Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race
• 22 of the last 27 were novice hurdling last season
• 4 of the last 10 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
• Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (51 of the last 53 winners had)
• 10 of the last 13 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year

Negatives….

• No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
• Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
• Avoid horses that had fallen before over fences
• Avoid horses that had had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
• Just 2 of the last 20 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
• The last 21 winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26^th Dec) have lost
• Avoid unbeaten horses (only 2 of the last 20 winners)
• Mares are currently 0-from-11 in the race
• Horses in headgear are currently 0 from 29

14:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle   2m 5f

2019 Winner: WILLIAM HENRY (28/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses….

• 11 of the last 15 were 2^nd season hurdlers
• 8 of the last 10 winners had run at the Festival before
• 9 of the last 11 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
• 8 of the last 11 winners were rated in the 140’s
• 7 of the last 10 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• 11 of the last 14 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
• 18 of the last 25 winners won earlier that season
• Respect JP McManus-owned runners
• Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (5 wins in last 10 years)
• 9 of the last 18 winners were FRENCH-BRED
• 13 of the last 26 won last time out
• Respect Irish-trained runners (5 of the last 11)
• Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (last 11 winners)
• 13 of the last 15 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
• Trainer Gordon Elliott is 2 from 10
• 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)

Negatives….

• No winning favourite in the last 16 years
• Only 3 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
• Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 305 to even place since 1999
• Horses rated 150+ don’t have a great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151
• Only 4 of the last 19 winners had raced at the Festival previously
• Only 3 winners since 2000 had run more than 9 times over hurdles
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 35 runners – just two placed inside the top 2

15:30 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase   2m

2019 Winner: ALTIOR 4/11 fav
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses….

• 12 of the last 19 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
• 4 of the last 7 winners also won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
• 23 of the last 35 had won at the Festival before
• Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 8 of the last 12 between them
• Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 8
• 14 of the last 18 winners won last time out
• 16 of the last 17 winners had run that calendar year
• 36 of the last 38 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
• 15 of the last 20 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 6 of the last 13 winners were French-bred
• 11 of the last 17 winners were second season chasers
• 13 of the last 15 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
• 17 of the last 21 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 15 of the last 20 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
• 6 of the last 10 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
• Past champions do well – 13 horses have won the CC more than once

Negatives….

• Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 37 years
• Just 1 winner in last 15 had run 4+ times that season
• Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year are 1-from-30
• Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, is yet to win this race
• Just 1 of the last 18 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
• 12 of the last 14 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
• Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 46 years
• Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 41 years

16:10 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase   3m 7f

2019 Winner: TIGER ROLL 5/4 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Keith Donoghue

Pluses….

• The Irish have won 13 of the last 15 runnings
• Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
• 18 of the last 22 winners came from the top three in the betting
• 8 of the last 15 ran in the December Cross Country race here
• Respect Nina Carberry, Richard Johnson and Davy Russell-ridden horses (8 from 16 between them)
• 12 or the last 15 winners were aged 10 or younger
• Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 10 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
• Gordon Elliott has won the last 3 runnings
• 3 of the last 5 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House

Negatives….

• Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record
• Avoid horses aged 7 or younger – they are only 2 from 97
• Horses rated 126 or less have a very poor record
• Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 12
• Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13

16:50 Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle   2m ½f

2019 Winner: BAND OF OUTLAWS7/2 fav
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – J J Slevin  

Pluses….

• 10 of the last 15 winners had run just 3 times over hurdles before
• French bred horses have a good record
• Respect Fillies
• 7 of the last 9 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
• 10 of the last 15 had run in the last 25 days
• David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot and Alan King-trained horses often do well
• 6 of the last 8 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1
• 10 of the last 15 winners returned a double-figure price
• Respect horses wearing headgear
• 12 of the last 15 winners were ALL rated between 124-134
• 8 of the last 12 winners were British-trained
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 10 runnings
• 11 of the last 15 winners had won no more than once over hurdles

Negatives….

• Just 1 recent winner had last raced in January or further back
• Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 32 between them
• Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 14 (just 1 placed in top 5 too)
• Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
• No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
• Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are 0 from the last 10 years
• British-bred runners are currently 0-51

17:30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper   2m ½f

2019 Winner: ENVOI ALLEN 2/1 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jamie Codd

Pluses….

• 25 of the last 27 had won last time out (all of last 16)
• 20of the last 27 winners trained in Ireland
• Respect Irish-trained runners (20 from 36)
• 4 of the last 10 winners were won by UK-based trainers
• 18 of the last 27 came from the top 6 in the betting
• 20 of the last 27 were Irish-bred
• 10 of the last 19 winners were second season horses
• 13 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 17 of the last 27 winners aged 5 years-old
• 17 of the last 19 had their debut runs in Ireland
• 11 of the last 17 had been beaten in a race before
• 6 of the last 10 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
• Respect Willie Mullins (9 winners) – also had first three in 2018, but is just 3 from last 35 runners
• The Irish lead the British 21-7 in the race history
• Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
• 9 of the last 17 winners came from the top 3 in the betting

Negatives….

• Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
• Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
• 4 year-olds are 1 from 60 since 2000 (Cue Card)
• Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race

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DAY ONE: Tuesday 10th March 2020

13:30 – SkyBet Supreme Novices' Hurdle   2m ½f

2019 Winner: KLASSICAL DREAM 6/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Ruby Walsh

Pluses…..

• 20 of the last 23 winners won their last race
• 14 of the last 16 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
• 8 of the last 10 winners came from the first 4 in the market
• The last 8 winners have all won a graded novice hurdle before
• 19 of the last 25 winners ran in the last 45 days
• Irish-trained horses have won 16 of the last 28 runnings
• 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 14 of the last 15 runnings
• Willie Mullins has won the race 5 times since 2007 and for 4 of the last 7 years
• 23 of the last 25 winners had raced that same calendar year
• Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 7 runnings.

Negatives…..

• Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 3 from the last 23. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
• Since 1992 all horses (37) wearing head-gear have been beaten
• We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
• Just 2 of the last 17 winners came here unbeaten
• Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-7 in the last decade
• Nicky Henderson is 1 from 36 since 1993 (Altior his only winner for this period)

14:10 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase   2m

2019 Winner: DUC DES GENIEVRES 5/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses….

• 12 of the last 15 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
• 12 of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
• 14 of the last 20 had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase that season
• The last 10 winners won last time out (plus 15 of the last 19)
• 19 of the last 20 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
• 12 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 12 of the last 16 winners at run at the Cheltenham Festival previously
• 11 of the last 19 winners were the top or second top-rated hurdler in the field
• Nicky Henderson has won the race 6 times
• Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 5 runnings (all French-bred)

Negatives…..

• Only 2 of the last 33 winners failed to win of finish second last time out
• Just two of the last 29 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
• Only 3 of the last 28 winners were older than 7 years-old
• The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
• The last 28 ex-flat horses to run have all lost
• Only 1 winner since 2000 won with headgear
• 5 year-olds are 0-11 in the last 12 years
• Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (prev season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners

14:50 Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase  3m 1f 

2019 Winner: BEWARE THE BEAR 10/1
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Jeremiah McGrath

Pluses….

• 15 of the last 20 winners were officially rated 143 or less
• 14 of the last 19 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 16 of the last 20 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
• 14 of the last 19 were novices or second season chasers
• 7 of the last 12 winners were rated between 142-146 (6 between 142-145)
• Horses rated 140+ have won 12 of the last 19 runnings
• 9 of the last 17 won last time out
• Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
• 3 of the last 10 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle that season
• 7 of the last 8 winners wore headgear
• 8 of the last 10 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
• Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
• All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
• The last 5 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting

Negatives….

• Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 9 of the last 15 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8
• Horses aged 11 or older are just 2 from 48 to even get placed
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 23
• Only 1 winner in the last 11 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
• Only 4 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1
• The Irish have won just 2 of the last 51 runnings (since 1967)

15:30 Unibet Champion Hurdle   2m ½f

2019 Winner: ESPOIR D’ALLEN 16/1
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Mark Walsh

Pluses….

• 30 of the last 36 won last time out
• Horses unbeaten that season often do well (7 of last 9)
• The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 17 of the last 21 runnings between them
• The Irish have won 13 of the last 21 runnings
• Owner JP McManus has won 5 of the last 10 (8 in total)
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 9 runnings
• 9 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 12 of the last 21 winners had won at the Festival before
• 23 of the last 35 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
• The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (4 winners, 4 places in last 12 runnings)
• 14 of the last 24 winners started as flat horses
• Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 7 times, including two of the last 3 years
• 5 of the last 11 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)

Negatives….

• Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
• 5 year-olds are just 2 from 102 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
• Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-28 in the last 37 runnings)
• Just 1 of the last 13 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
• Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26^th Dec) winners are just 3 from 27
• Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975

16:10 Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle   2m 4f

2019 Winner: ROKSANA 10/1
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton

Pluses….

• Follow Irish-trained mares (10 of last 12)
• The favourite (or 2^nd fav) have won 10 of the last 12 runnings
• 7 of the last 12 favourites have won
• 11 of the last 12 winners had won over at least 2m4f
• Willie Mullins have trained 9 of the last 11 winners
• Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
• Novices generally do well
• 9 of the last 12 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
• 6 of the last 8 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
• Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
• Respect French-bred mares – won 9 renewals
• 10 of the last 12 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males

Negatives….

• Avoid front-runners
• British-bred mares are currently 0-78 (only 7 have been placed)
• All 27 runners to wear headgear have been beaten (just 1 placed)
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
• No ex-flat horses have won the race yet

16:50 Northern Trust Company Novices' Handicap Chase   2m 4½f

2019 Winner: A PLUS TARD
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

Pluses….

• 11 of the last 15 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 11 of the last 12 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences
• 14 of the last 15 winners had won no more than twice over fences (11 had won no more than once)
• 14 of the last 15 winners raced in the last 45 days
• Respect 6 and 7 year-olds
• 3 of the last 7 winners ran in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase
• 6 of the last 15 winners had run at the Festival before
• Look for any horses wearing first-time headgear
• 6 of last 11 won last time out
• 8 of the last 13 winners had run in a bumper race before
• 13 of the last 15 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
• Respect JP McManus-owned runners (1 win, 3 2nds, 1 3^rd)
• Respect Henderson, O’Neill & Hobbs runners

Negatives….

• Avoid horses outside the top five in the betting
• Avoid horses with less than 4 starts in the last 12 months
• The Irish are just 2 from the last 15 runnings
• Look for horses rated 141 or higher

17:30 National Hunt Challenge Chase   3m6f

2019 Winner: LE BREUIL 14/1
Trainer – Ben Pauling
Jockey – Jamie Codd

Pluses…..

• 11 of the last 18 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
• Favourites have won 3 of the last 10 runnings
• 4 of the last 9 winners were top-rated
• 5 of the last 9 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
• 7 of the last 13 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
• 7 of the last 10 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
• Note horses wearing headgear
• 7 of the last 9 winners were rated 145 (or more)
• Look out for JP McManus-owned (6 winners) runners
• Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race
• Jockey Derek O’Connor has 2 wins / 4 places (from 14 rides)
• Derek O’Connor, Jamie Codd & Patrick Mullins have won 6 of the last 9 (2 each)
• Gordon Elliott has won the race 3 times from just 7 runners

Negatives….

• 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 80 since 1989
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race - he’s currently 0 from 18
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race
• Horses with less than 3 chase starts don’t fare well
• Horses rated in the 130’s have a poor record (1 from 8)

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NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 - Betfair In-Play Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m52y ITV4

13/14 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
12/14 – Had run within the last 10 weeks
10/14 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
10/14 – Aged 7 or younger
10/14 – Carried 10-13 or more
10/14 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
9/14 – Unplaced last time out
9/14 – Carried 11-0 or more
7/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/14 – Aged 7 years-old
6/14 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/14 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (no winners)
3/14 – French bred
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/14 – Raced at Haydock last time out

2.25 – Win Bigger On The Betfair Exchange Chase (Registered as The Game Spirit Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV4

14/14 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Placed favourites
13/14 – Aged 8 or younger
12/14 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (3 winners)
11/14 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
11/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/14 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
10/14 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
8/14 – Won last time out
8/14 – Winning favourites
7/14 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (5 winners)
6/14 – French bred
6/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/14 – Ran at Sandown last time out
4/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/14 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
2/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/14 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
Altior has won the last two renewals (2017 & 2018)

Note: The 2019 running was staged at Ascot

3.00 - Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

14/16 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
14/16 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Rated 150+
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Aged 8 or younger
12/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
10/16 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out
10/16 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
7/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Irish bred
6/16 – French bred
5/16 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
4/16 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
3/16 – Returned a double-figure price
3/16 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
7 of the last 13 winners were aged 7 years-old
The average SP in the last 13 runnings is 3/1

Note: 2009 running was staged at Kempton and the 2019 running staged at Ascot

3.35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

17/17 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
16/17 – Aged 7 or younger
15/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/17 – Rated 130 or higher
14/17 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
14/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/17 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
14/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14/17 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/17 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
12/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
9/17 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Irish bred
7/17 – Aged 5 years-old (including 7 of last 13)
7/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/17 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of last 6)
2/17  - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/17 – Owned by JP McManus
1/17 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
22 of the last 23 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 13/1

WARWICK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

9/9 – Aged 7 or younger
8/9 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
8/9 – Won over 2m fences before
7/9 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
7/9 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Rated between 137-147
5/9 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
5/9 – Won last time out
4/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Unplaced favs
4 of the last 5 winners have been 6 year-olds

Note: 2009 renewal was at Sandown

2.40 – St Mary’s Lands Warwick Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

Just 5 previous running
5/5 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
5/5 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
4/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Favourites placed 1^st or 2^nd
4/5 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
3/5 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
3/5 – Rated between 141 and 149
3/5 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
2/5 – Winning favourites
2/5 – Irish bred
2/5 – Had run at Warwick before
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 5 runnings

3.15 – Warwick Castle Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 2m4f ITV4

9/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/9 – Irish (3) or French (6) bred
8/9 – Aged 9 or younger
8/9 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
7/9 – Favourites that finished in the top three
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
7/9 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
7/9 – Unplaced in their last race
7/9 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
5/9 – Carried 11-0 or more
3/9 – Winning favourites (1 joint)

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Sandown Horse Racing Trends (Abandoned)

1.20 – Paddy Power 3 Sleeps To Cheltenham Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (4yo 0-125) 2m ITV4

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
6/7 – Had won over 2m hurdles before
6/7 – Won no more than twice over hurdles
6/7 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/7 – Favourites placed in the top three
6/7 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Carried between 11-8 and 11-10 in weight
5/7 – Finished 3^rd or 4^th last time out
4/7 – Rated 118 or 119
2/7 – Favourites
2/7 – Won last time out

1.55 – European Breeders´ Fund Paddy Power "National Hunt" Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f173y ITV4

17/17 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
16/17 – Carried 10-11 or more
14/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/17 – Rated 129 or less
13/17 – Unplaced favourites
12/17 – Returned 9/1 or less in the betting
11/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Aged 6 years-old
9/17 – Had won over this trip before
6/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Won by the Pipe yard
1/17 – Winning favourites
1/17 – Winners that went onto run at Cheltenham (3^rd Martin Pipe)

2.30 – Paddy Power Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

16/17 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
16/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
15/17 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
15/17 – Carried 10-13 or less
14/17 – Rated 124 or higher
13/17 – Aged 6 or younger
12/17 – Carried 10-7 or less
10/17 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Gaspara - Fred Winter)
11/17 – Had won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) before
10/17 – Finished in the top two last time out
9/17 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/17 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2), Sandown (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
6/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – French bred
5/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Had raced at Sandown (hurdles) before – 2 had won there before
5/17 – Won by the Pipe stable (have won it 9 times in all)
2/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of last 4)
1/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
Malaya (1^st 7/1) won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 11/1

3.05 – EBF Stallions/TBA Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

16/16 – Had won at least one NH Flat race before
15/16 – 1^ST or 2^ND last time out
14/16 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
12/16– Won last time out
11/16 – Had won just once before (NH Flat race)
9/16 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
9/16 – Aged 5 years-old
1/16 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 13 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old

Wolverhampton Horse Racing Trends

1.35 – Bombardier Golden Beer Lincoln Trial Handicap Cl2 1m141y ITV4

16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
15/17 – Won over a mile (or further) before
14/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/17– Won at least three times before
14/17 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
9/17 – Came from stall 8 or higher
9/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/17 – Aged 5 years-old
7/17 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/17 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
Zwayyan (7/1) won the race 12 months ago

2.45 – Bombardier British Hopped Amber Beer Lady Wulfruna Stakes (AW Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f32y ITV4

12/13 – Had won over 7f before
11/13 – Had won at least 4 times before
10/13 – Placed favourites
10/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Rated 104 or higher
9/13 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
7/13 – Raced at Lingfield last time out
7/13 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
7/13 – Unplaced last time out
6/13 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
6/13 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
4/13 – Winning favourite
2/13 – Trained by Marco Botti
Above The Rest (18/1) won the race in 2019

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Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

1.15 – Betway Pendil Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

13/15 – French (8) of Irish (5) bred
12/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
12/15 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/15 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
11/15 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
10/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (won 7 of the last 10)
9/15 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
8/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 13/8

1.50 – Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

15/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 -  Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the UK
12/16 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
12/16 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
10/16– Won carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
9/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – French bred
5/16 – Irish bred
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Trained by Alan King (won two of last 3 runnings)
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Triumph Hurdle
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

2.25 - Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV4

16/16 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/16 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
14/16 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
12/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
12/16 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
10/16 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/16 – Rated 155 or higher
8/16 – Winning favourites
8/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Raced at Sandown last time out
4/16 – Trained by Alan King
1/16 – Winners that went onto win the World Hurdle (Inglis Drever)

3.02 – Sky Bet Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

13/14 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
13/14 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
12/14 – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
11/14 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
8/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – French bred
4/14 – Trained by Alan King
4/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

3.35 – Betway Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV4

15/17 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
14/17 – Rated 139 or higher
12/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
11/17 – Won a class 2 chase or better before
11/17 – Carried 10-13 or more
11/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
11/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/17 – Rated between 139 and 150
8/17 – Carried 11-5 or more
7/17 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Aged 8 years-old
5/17 – French bred
4/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
4/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
3/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
2/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson (won it 5 times in all)
2/17 – Trained by Tom George
2/17 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 3)
2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs (won it 4 times in all)
2/17 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

2.45 – Vertem Eider (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 4m1f ITV4

16/16 – Had won over at least 3m before
14/16 – Aged 10 or younger
13/16 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/16 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Irish-bred
11/16 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/16 – Officially rated between 131-140
10/16 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/16 – Placed favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Won over 3m4f or further before
3/16 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

2.05 – Betway Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4

12/13 – Rated 96+
11/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Had raced at Lingfield before
9/13 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
9/13 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
9/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/13 – Placed favs
8/13 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
4/13 – US bred
4/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Mare winners
3/13 – Trained by David Barron
0/13 – Winners from stall 1
Royal Birth won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

3.15 - Betway Winter Derby (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f ITV4

16/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
14/17 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
13/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
13/17 – Had run at Lingfield previously
13/17 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
13/17 – Had raced at either Lingfield (8) or Kempton (4) last time out
12/17 – Winning distance – less than a length
11/17 – Placed in their last race
11/17 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the market
11/17 – Won at Lingfield previously
11/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
10/17 – Won their last race
9/17 – Won at least 6 times previously
8/17 – Winning favourites
Just 2 of the last 14 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 17 renewals is 6/1

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