4.00 Southwell : Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 BOG 10th at 8/1 (Always in rear)
Thursday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG
...in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner...
Why?...
This 7 yr old gelding quite probably needed the run last time out, when finishing fourth here over course and distance a fortnight ago in a better field than this one. He was coming back from a 3-month break that day, but got going late on to stay on into fourth, beaten by just over a length and a quarter.
This looks a slightly weaker contest (based on OR marks) against fewer rivals with the benefits of (a) having had a run, (b) being eased a pound by the assessor and (c) having a 7lb claimer ride instead of a 5lb one, making him effectively 3lbs better off here.
He is currently 3 from 12 (25% SR) for 2.5pts (+20.8% ROI) profit backed blindly over today's track and trip in handicap contests, including...
...and he's 2 from 2 (100% SR) for 4.09pts (+204.5% ROI) when all three of the above are aligned as they are today.
His record here comes as less of a surprise, if you know that he's by Frozen Power, whose offspring are 19 from 66 (28.8% SR) for 40.5pts (+61.4% ROI) profit since the start of 2016 in UK A/W handicaps on Tapeta over trips shorter than 1m2f at odds of 8/1 and shorter, including of note/relevance today...
...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.00am Thursday morning with some 3/1 at SkyBet too, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Newcastle
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
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