1.30 Haydock : Glinger Flame @ 6/1 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Held up, slow 1st, outpaced 11th, hanging left before 4 out, soon well beaten)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m1f on Soft (heavy in places) ground worth £4,809 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old mare is currently 4 from 20 (20% SR) which on face value is definitely reasonable and worth a second look. When you do look closer, you'll find that in the context of this race, her numbers are excellent when compared to her 7 rivals here , who are a combined 4 from 127 (3.15% SR)!

She has also made the frame in 7 of 16 defeats, meaning she has placed in 55% of all contests including the four wins and her 4/20 record includes of relevance today...

• 4 wins and 6 places from 17 on soft/heavy
• 4 and 6 from 16 with a 5-7lb claimer on board
• 4 and 5 from 15 after 10-50 days rest
• 4 and 6 from 14 in 5-9 runner contests
• 4 and 5 from 13 from Jan-April
• 4 and 3 from 8 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
• 3 and 6 from 15 over 2m-2m1f
• 3 and 4 from 10 with Abbie McCain in the saddle
• 3 and 2 from 8 on soft ground
• 2 and 5 from 12 at Class 4

...and 5-7lb claimer + 5-9 runners + soft/heavy + Jan-April + 4/1 max odds + 11-50 dslr = 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 11.55pts (+288.8% ROI), including...

• 3/3 for Abbie McCain
• 3/3 on soft
• 3/3 at 2m-2m1f
• and 2/2 at Class 4

The potential fly in the ointment is the weight, of course. As she's so consistent and clearly the best horse in the race, she gets no help from the handicapper today. Jockey Abbie's 5lb claim is the only relief available, but there's a precedent here, as since the start of 2015, Donald McCain's handicap hurdlers that are top weight have won 8 of 30 (26.7% SR) for 13.7pts (+45.7% ROI) profit when sent off at Evens to 10/1 with a claimer jockey on board, including the following at play today...

• 8/24 (33.3%) for 19.7pts (+82.1%) in fields of 4-9 runners
• 8/22 (36.4%) for 21.7pts (+98.6%) at 1-30 dslr
• 7/20 (35%) for 20.4pts (+102%) with 7-9 yr olds
• 6/14 (42.9%) for 2.4pts (+67.3%) at Class 4
• 4/12 (33.3%) for 12.6pts (+104.9%) on soft/heavy
• 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.4pts (+70.1%) over 2m-2m2f
• 3/10 (30%) for 10.3pts (+103.1%) on soft
• and 2/5 (40%) for 3.13pts (+62.6%) for Abbie McCain...

...whilst 4-9 runners + 1-30dslr + 6-9 yr old + Class 4 = 6/9 (66.6% SR) for 28.4pts (+315.7% ROI), including...

• 4/4 at 2m-2m2f
• 4/4 on soft/heavy
• 3/3 on soft...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Carlisle

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!