3.50 Fakenham : Penny Mallow @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 2/1 (Disputed lead until led 6th, headed before 10th, lost place 3 out)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.30 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glinger Flame @ 6/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3f on Heavy ground worth £9,747 to the winner...

Why?...

This 8 yr old gelding finished 23111 over hurdles before switching to the larger obstacles where he is currently 1 from 2, after winning a heavy ground contest at Ayr almost four weeks ago on his last outing. Overall, to date, he is...

• 4/5 wearing cheekpieces
• 4/4 at 20-70 dslr
• 2/3 in fields of fewer than 8 runners
• 1/1 in a hcp
• 1/1 on heavy
• and 1/1 under today's jockey Sean Quinlan, who himself is...

...6 from 16 (37.5% SR) for 71.1pts (+444.6% ROI) when riding for trainer Nicky Richards in the last 12 months. two big priced winners are clearly affecting the P/L and the ROI here, but the Strike rate is excellent and those 16 races include the following of relevance here today...

• 6/12 (50%) for 75.1pts (+625.8%) with 7-10 yr olds
• 5/11 (45.5%) for 74.6pts (+677.9%) over fences
• 5/9 (55.6%) for 76.6pts (+850.8%) at 26-60 dslr
• 4/11 (36.4%) for 66.9pts (+608.4%) in handicaps
• 4/10 (40%) for 37.3pts (+373.2%) in fields of 6-9 runners
• 2/3 (66.6%) for 36.8pts (+1227.3%) with LTO winners
• and 2/3 (66.6%) for 29.4pts (+980%) on heavy ground...

...whilst Quinlan + Richards + 7-10yo chasers at 26-60 dslr = 5/6 (83.3% SR) for 79.6pts (+1326.2% ROI).

Trainer Nicky Richards' horses don't mind a bit of mud either (just as well!), as his handicap chasers are 19 from 54 (35.2% SR) for 62.4pts (+115.6% ROI) backed blindly on heavy ground since the start of 2013, including of note today...

• 19/48 (39.6%) for 68.4pts (+142.6%) in faces with fewer than 10 runners
• 17/41 (41.5%) for 66.8pts (+162.9%) within 2 months of their last run
• 17/39 (43.6%) for 65.6pts (+168.1%) over 2m to 3m
• 16/37 (43.2%) for 34.3pts (+92.6%) in races worth £4-10.5k
• 12/29 (41.4%) for 25.4pts (+87.7%) at Class 3
• 7/19 (36.8%) for 18.1pts (+95%) stepped up in trip by 1-4 furlongs
• 5/12 941.7%) for 9.35pts (+77.9%) with LTO winners
• 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.7pts (+195.7%) in the North West
• and 2/2 (100%) for 30.4pts (+1520%) for our aforementioned jockey, Sean Quinlan...

...and Class 3 + 2m-3m + £4-10.5k + 1-60dslr + 1-9 runners = 11/17 (64.7%) for 32.3pts (+189.8%) including...

• 4 from 6 stepped up by 1-4f
• 3 from 4 LTO winners
• 1 from 1 LTO winners stepped up 1-4f
• 1 from 1 in the North West...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Glinger Flame @ 6/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.40am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Haydock

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!