3.10 Chelmsford : Krazy Paving @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Chased leader, challenged going well over 2f out, carried right and led over 1f out, headed inside final furlong)
Saturday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Emma Beag @ 4/1 BOG
...in an 8-runner, Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1f on soft ground worth £3,184 to the winner...
Why?...
This 9 yr old mare has 2 wins and 2 places from her 7 handicap hurdles efforts since the start of 2019, including 2 from 6 under today's jockey, 2 from 3 here at Ayr, culminating in a win here over 3m0.5f on heavy ground last time out, 48 days ago with today's rider Henry Brooke in the saddle.
Her trainer, Julia Brooke, doesn't have the largest string of runners at her disposal, nor is she a prolific winner, but she does well here at Ayr, where her runners are four times more likely to win as they would elsewhere with this track providing 21.4% of her career winners from just 6.4% of her total runners!
Numerically, we're looking at a career record of 28/298 (9.4% SR) generating 6 winners from 19 (31.6% SR) for 32.5pts (+171.2% ROI) here at Ayr, as opposed to 22 from 279 (7.9%) elsewhere and although we're not talking about huge numbers here, those six Ayr winners include of relevance today...
...whilst since the start of 2019, Julia's 8-10 yr old NH handicappers at 2/1 to 5/1 here at Ayr have won 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 19.2pts (+480% ROI), including 3 for Henry Brooke, 2 at Class 5, 2 over hurdles and 2 in races worth less than £4k...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Emma Beag @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.55am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Ayr
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
]]>1.10 Leicester : Wenceslaus @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (Meeting abandoned : waterlogged track)
Friday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Instant Replay @ 10/3 BOG
...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3½f on Soft (G to S in places) ground worth £7,018 to the winner...
Why?...
Well, we like horse, jockey & trainer under today's conditions, so let's look at each!
The horse : This 8 yr old gelding actually won this race last year and loves coming here to tackle the fences, having won three times and placed on a further two occasions from just six efforts in handicap chases here, including...
The Jockey : Henry Brooke also has a great record here, winning 22 of 88 (25% SR) handicap chases at this venue over the last seven years, generating 59.9pts profit at an impressive 68% ROI, largely thanks to the following achieved under today's conditions...
and the trainer : Brian Ellison, who for one reason or another doesn't send too many handicap chasers to Sedgefield, despite it only being a 60-mile journey from his yard in North Yorkshire. We can discount the travelling aspect for his lack of visits here and it certainly isn't because he can't get winners here either.
In the last four years, his Sedgefield handicap chase record at odds of Evens to 15/4 stands at 7 from 16 (43.75% SR) for 6.68pts (+41.8% ROI) profit. All 16 were male and include...
...and this 3-pronged approach suggests...a 1pt win bet on Instant Replay @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365, SkyBet & Hills (but please check your BOG status first) at 8.10am on Friday and was still offered by Bet365 at 9.05am. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Sedgefield
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
]]>12.20 Chepstow : Native Robin @ 4/1 5th at 11/2 (Held up and behind, short-lived effort after 11th)
Monday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Castletown @ 4/1 BOG
...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novice Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4f on currently Good to Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner
Why?...
This 7 yr old gelding's form over the last 12 months reads 222312 and he was a runner-up over class, course and distance last time out a fortnight ago, headed late on and beaten by just 3 lengths despite coming off the back of a 226-day absence. He should come on for having had that run and going off the same mark today is a bonus.
In those last 6 runs he is...
He is trained by Pauline Robson who is 27 from 110 (24.6% SR) for 25.5pts (+23.2% ROI) with her NH runners sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 since the start of 2016, including...
...whilst based around the above categories and applicable today...handicappers racing over 2m to 3m0.5f within 45 days of their last run as Pauline's only runner of the day are 12 from 29 (41.4% SR) for 28.7pts (+99% ROI) within 170 miles of home, from which...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.50pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (non-BOG until raceday) were half a point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...
...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Musselburgh
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
]]>12.20 Chepstow : Native Robin @ 4/1 5th at 11/2 (Held up and behind, short-lived effort after 11th)
Monday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Castletown @ 4/1 BOG
...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novice Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4f on currently Good to Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner
Why?...
This 7 yr old gelding's form over the last 12 months reads 222312 and he was a runner-up over class, course and distance last time out a fortnight ago, headed late on and beaten by just 3 lengths despite coming off the back of a 226-day absence. He should come on for having had that run and going off the same mark today is a bonus.
In those last 6 runs he is...
He is trained by Pauline Robson who is 27 from 110 (24.6% SR) for 25.5pts (+23.2% ROI) with her NH runners sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 since the start of 2016, including...
...whilst based around the above categories and applicable today...handicappers racing over 2m to 3m0.5f within 45 days of their last run as Pauline's only runner of the day are 12 from 29 (41.4% SR) for 28.7pts (+99% ROI) within 170 miles of home, from which...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.50pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (non-BOG until raceday) were half a point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...
...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Musselburgh
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
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