7.20 Chelmsford : Muraaqeb @ 4/1 2nd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, headway over 1f out, went 2nd and hung left inside final furlong, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Justatenner @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7f on Heavy ground worth £6,238 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 8 yr old gelding has finished 212231 in his last six starts, all in handicap hurdle contests with today's jockey, Harry Reed, in the saddle, including a 2 length victory at Ayr when last seen almost six weeks ago. He is 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 19.09pts (+112.3% ROI) in handicap hurdles since joining Tristan Davidson's yard (all ridden by Harry Reed), including...

• 5/14 (35.7%) for 22.09pts (+157.8%) at 2m6f to 3m1.5f
• 4/12 (33.3%) for 21.17pts (+176.5%) going left handed
• 4/8 (50%) for 6.50pts (+81.25%) at 4/1 and shorter
• and 4/7 (57.1%) for 25.57pts (+365.3%) in races worth less than £8k

But Tristan's success with hurdlers isn't just based around this particular horse, as since the start of 2018 his other hurdlers are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 22.54pts (+70.5% ROI), with the following at play today...

• 8/26 (30.8%) for 25.68pts (+98.8%) using Harry Reed's services
• 8/18 (44.4%) for 35.1pts (+195%) at odds of 11/4 to 9/1
• 6/10 (60%) for 30.57pts (+305.7%) at 31-75 days since last run
• and 5/9 (55.6%) for 19.89pts (+221%) at 2m4.5f to 2m7f...

...whilst the yard's LTO winners are 11/29 (37.9% SR) for 22.33pts (+77% ROI) since 2015, including of note today...

• 10/22 (45.5%) for 27.38pts (+124.4%) at 11-45 dslr
• 5/12 (41.7%) for 12.64pts (+105.3%) with 7/8 yr olds
• and 4/8 (50%) for 6.55pts (+81.9%) at 2m7f to 3m0.5f

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Justatenner @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 5.15pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Bangor

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!