4.30 Lingfield : Will To Win @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Led 1f, with leader, led just over 1f out, soon ridden, headed and not quicken inside final furlong) : right trainer, wrong horse!
Thursday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Le Boizelo @ 4/1 BOG
...in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m1½f on soft ground worth £8,447 to the winner...
Why?...
Generally pretty poor racing at this time of year pre-Cheltenham, but today looks more desperate than ever, so I'm going to keep it really short and simple with a 9 yr old gelding, who has won at this track, acts on heavy ground, stays further than today, has won under today's jockey and has won in this grade.
He also tends to do well at shorter (ie 5/1 max) odds and has 3 wins going right handed, including two over fences.
He is trained by Robert Walford less than 20 miles away from this track at Okeford Fitzpaine, Dorset, but despite that proximity, the yard only send 5 or 6 chasers here every year, but they do well enough to make the journey worthwhile.
Since 2015, Mr Walford's Class 2 to 4 handicap chasers sent off at evens to 12/1 are 5 from 27 (18.5% SR) for 7.26pts (+26.9% ROI) profit, all from male runners, including...
...whilst those returning from such a break to run at 7/4 to 6/1 are 2 from 5 (40% SR) for 7.93pts (+158.5% ROI).
I told you it would be short and simple...
...as that's the basis for...a 1pt win bet on Le Boizelo @ 4/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Hills at 8.15am Thursday, with plenty of 7/2 elsewhere but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Wincanton
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
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