4.40 Musselburgh : Summer Lightening @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 5/1 (Chased leaders, not fluent 2nd, lost place after next, ridden 7th, closed on outside next, weakened before normal 3 out (actual 2 out)) : she showed very little desire to get involved.
Thursday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Cap St Vincent @ 9/2 BOG
...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Soft ground worth £12,736 to the winner...
Why?...
This 7 yr old gelding won another soft ground, Class 3, handicap chase when last seen 25 days ago at Taunton and although he's up 5lbs for that win, a change of jockey to an in-form 5lb claimer sorts that out.
He's now got 4 wins and 2 from 9 starts over fences, including under today's conditions...
The afore-mentioned jockey, Charlie Price, hasn't been overworked of late (mind you, we've lost plenty of racing recently), but has won 3 and placed in 4 others of his 10 rides in the past three weeks, which is decent enough and he now teams up with trainer Tim Vaughan, who himself has had some joy here in Shropshire in the past few years.
More specifically, Tim Vaughan's chasers at Ludlow (all male btw) are 9 from 30 (30% SR) for 48.7pts (+162.4% ROI) if backed blindly since the start of 2014, with the following of relevance today...
...whilst those sent off at 10/1 or shorter in 5-9 runner handicaps worth £4k to £13k are 7 from 12 (58.3% SR) for 33.5pts (+279.3% ROI) and these include 5 from 6 within 25 dslr, 3 from 3 at this 3m C&D, 2 from 2 from LTO winners and 1 from 1 at Class 3...
...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Cap St Vincent @ 9/2 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Unibet at 8.00am Thursday (and widely available by 9.00am) with some 5/1 BOG at Hills, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Ludlow
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
]]>2.55 Catterick : Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 10/3 (Led until slow 5th, soon ridden, led 8th, headed before 3 out, one pace)
Wednesday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG
...in a 7-runner, Class 2, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m on soft ground worth £16,458 to the winner...
Why?...
Well, we're with the Skeltons today and their 6 yr old gelding who was won 7 of his last 10 outings and is 9 from 20 in his entire career, including 3 from 5 over fences and...
He has won on soft ground and also over course and distance and in fact won on soft over C&D last time out, when comfortably clear by nine lengths! And referring back to the above numbers, he is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 3.62pts (+60.4% ROI) when Harry rides him in fields of 3-8 runners over trips shorter than 2m1f at 11-35 dslr.
Both Harry and trainer Dan have good records here at Ludlow, but (a) that's fairly common knowledge and (b) it's actually highlighted on your race card via the green C1 and C5 icons, so I won't go there today.
Instead I'm going to focus on the fact that since 2014, Dan's former C&D winners sent off within 45 days of an LTO win anywhere are 19 from 41 (46.3% SR) for 11.23pts (+27.4% ROI) at odds of 6/1 and shorter, from which, they are...
...whilst when Harry has ridden the 5-7 yr old LTO C&D winners from above since the start of 2017, they are 13/16 (81.25% SR) for 17.53pts (+109.6% ROI) and these include 8 from 10 in handicaps, 8 from 8 over fences, 4 from 5 stepping up a class, 4 from 4 in handicap chases and 2 from 2 on soft ground...
...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Unibet at 5.25pm on Monday. Do use BOG if possible, as this one might drift a little, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...
...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Ludlow
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
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