4.45 Catterick : Mamoo @ 11/2 BOG WON at 7/1 (Mid-division, headway after 3 out, challenged towards stands side rail next, not clear run and switched inside between last 2, soon ridden, stayed on to lead towards finish) : nice to "nick" one and the other mentioned horse also won for a 35/1 double!
Wednesday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Summer Lightening @ 10/3 BOG
...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4f on Soft ground worth £3,964 to the winner...
Why?...
This 6 yr old mare was a winner last time out five weeks ago, comes here seeking a hat-trick and is the only one of the 9 runners in this contest with any real discernible recent form, as only one other has a win in their last five outings.
She has won three times so far, including...
Her trainer Dianne Sayer tends to do well with in-form horses and since the start of 2018, her LTO winners are 11 from 36 (30.6% SR) for 12.7pts (+35.3% ROI) with the following derived angles at play today...
...whilst 4-6 yr old handicappers sent off at 5/4 to 15/4 after 5-35 days rest are 7 from 10 (70% SR) for 14.75pts (+147.5% ROI), including 4 from 5 (80%) for 9.09pts (+181.8%) over hurdles...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Summer Lightening @ 10/3 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Hills at 8.05am Wednesday with plenty of 3/1 BOG around elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Musselburgh
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
]]>3.05 Catterick : Casual Cavalier @ 11/4 BOG WON at 5/1 (Tracked leaders, disputed lead from 7th, led 4 out, 3 lengths clear 2 out, ridden out flat, held on near finish) - a very satisfactory end to a frustrating month that also started well, but had a serious dip in the middle!
Saturday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Locker Room Talk @ 3/1 BOG
...in the 10-runner, Class 3, Scottish Champion Chase (Handicap for the Bowes-Lyon trophy) for 5yo+ over 2m on Good to Soft ground worth £13,256 to the winner...
Why?...
This 7 yr old gelding has made the frame in 8 of his 9 starts (5 over hrds and then 4 over fences) during the past 12 months, winning four times. His record over fences reads 3311 including successes at 1m7.5f and 2m0.5f and als0 at this Class 3 level and a grade higher.
To date, he was won 4 of 12 (33.33% SR), including the following applicable today...
He has travelled a long way to run here today, but his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies does well when far from home. Since the start of 2016, his NH non-Festival runners sent off at odds of 6/5 to 8/1 at tracks more than 200 miles from home are 12 from 51 (23.5% SR) for 10.4pts (+20.4% ROI), including the following of relevance here...
...whilst during October to March over the last two years at 240-340 miles from home in races worth £4-14k, those runners are 8/20 (40% SR) 21.8pts (+109% ROI), including...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Locker Room Talk @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Saturday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Musselburgh
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
P.P.S. I'm away for the weekend from lunchtime Friday until Monday afternoon, so whilst I'll do my best to stick to the usual timetable, it might not possible, but there'll definitely be picks from me for Saturday & Monday.
]]>12.20 Chepstow : Native Robin @ 4/1 5th at 11/2 (Held up and behind, short-lived effort after 11th)
Monday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Castletown @ 4/1 BOG
...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novice Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4f on currently Good to Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner
Why?...
This 7 yr old gelding's form over the last 12 months reads 222312 and he was a runner-up over class, course and distance last time out a fortnight ago, headed late on and beaten by just 3 lengths despite coming off the back of a 226-day absence. He should come on for having had that run and going off the same mark today is a bonus.
In those last 6 runs he is...
He is trained by Pauline Robson who is 27 from 110 (24.6% SR) for 25.5pts (+23.2% ROI) with her NH runners sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 since the start of 2016, including...
...whilst based around the above categories and applicable today...handicappers racing over 2m to 3m0.5f within 45 days of their last run as Pauline's only runner of the day are 12 from 29 (41.4% SR) for 28.7pts (+99% ROI) within 170 miles of home, from which...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.50pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (non-BOG until raceday) were half a point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...
...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Musselburgh
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
]]>12.20 Chepstow : Native Robin @ 4/1 5th at 11/2 (Held up and behind, short-lived effort after 11th)
Monday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Castletown @ 4/1 BOG
...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novice Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4f on currently Good to Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner
Why?...
This 7 yr old gelding's form over the last 12 months reads 222312 and he was a runner-up over class, course and distance last time out a fortnight ago, headed late on and beaten by just 3 lengths despite coming off the back of a 226-day absence. He should come on for having had that run and going off the same mark today is a bonus.
In those last 6 runs he is...
He is trained by Pauline Robson who is 27 from 110 (24.6% SR) for 25.5pts (+23.2% ROI) with her NH runners sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 since the start of 2016, including...
...whilst based around the above categories and applicable today...handicappers racing over 2m to 3m0.5f within 45 days of their last run as Pauline's only runner of the day are 12 from 29 (41.4% SR) for 28.7pts (+99% ROI) within 170 miles of home, from which...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.50pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (non-BOG until raceday) were half a point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...
...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Musselburgh
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
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