3.05 Catterick : Casual Cavalier @ 11/4 BOG WON at 5/1 (Tracked leaders, disputed lead from 7th, led 4 out, 3 lengths clear 2 out, ridden out flat, held on near finish) - a very satisfactory end to a frustrating month that also started well, but had a serious dip in the middle!
Saturday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Locker Room Talk @ 3/1 BOG
...in the 10-runner, Class 3, Scottish Champion Chase (Handicap for the Bowes-Lyon trophy) for 5yo+ over 2m on Good to Soft ground worth £13,256 to the winner...
Why?...
This 7 yr old gelding has made the frame in 8 of his 9 starts (5 over hrds and then 4 over fences) during the past 12 months, winning four times. His record over fences reads 3311 including successes at 1m7.5f and 2m0.5f and als0 at this Class 3 level and a grade higher.
To date, he was won 4 of 12 (33.33% SR), including the following applicable today...
He has travelled a long way to run here today, but his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies does well when far from home. Since the start of 2016, his NH non-Festival runners sent off at odds of 6/5 to 8/1 at tracks more than 200 miles from home are 12 from 51 (23.5% SR) for 10.4pts (+20.4% ROI), including the following of relevance here...
...whilst during October to March over the last two years at 240-340 miles from home in races worth £4-14k, those runners are 8/20 (40% SR) 21.8pts (+109% ROI), including...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Locker Room Talk @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Saturday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Musselburgh
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
P.P.S. I'm away for the weekend from lunchtime Friday until Monday afternoon, so whilst I'll do my best to stick to the usual timetable, it might not possible, but there'll definitely be picks from me for Saturday & Monday.
]]>3.20 Lingfield : Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, never nearer)
New Year's Day's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Redford Road @ 3/1 and Betfair SP
...in the 6-runner, Listed, Ballymore Novices Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £14,238 to the winner...
Why?...
This 6 yr old gelding was a Grade 2 winner here at Cheltenham on his last start 18 days ago and although he now takes a drop in trip, he has won at 2m4f over hurdles in the past. In fact he's never been out of the first two home in five starts, winning three times and never beaten by more than a length, including...
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies' hurdlers who won last time out are 31 from 99 (31.3% SR) for 17.1pts (+17.3% ROI) when sent off at odds of Evens to 13/2 over the past four years, including of relevance today...
...whilst from the above...5-6 yr old males racing over 2m3½f to 2m4½f are 9/15 (60% SR) for 21.53pts (+143.5% ROI) including 4/7 on soft, 2/2 in Jan, 2/2 dropping 4-5f and 1/1 at Chelts...
...giving us...0.5pts at Betfair SP and a 0.5pt win bet on Redford Road @ 3/1 as was available from Paddy Power & Betfair at 6.40pm on New Year's Eve. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 12.15 Cheltenham
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
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