3.40 Kelso : Calle Malva @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Held up in 5th, outpaced after 3 out, rallied chasing leaders before last, went right and every chance last, ridden and no extra run-in, beaten by 2 lengths)
Tuesday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Seeanythingyoulike @ 7/2 BOG
...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m2f on soft ground worth £5,458 to the winner...
Why?...
On a dismal-looking day of racing with small fields on poor ground, I see a lot of fancied runners at such short prices that they offer little value to us and I admit to having scratched around a little looking for a selection, but this horse just kept popping up on my lists of angles qualifiers.
There's precious little decent form on offer from any of the runners here, but our pick did at least win by 21 lengths three starts ago on New Year's Eve on similarly soft ground. He was 3rd of 12 last time out, but that's a little flattering, as he was actually beaten by 28 lengths that day, but I feel it might have been one race too many as it was his third in a month, which might have been too much for a 9 yr old on constantly poor ground.
Now rested for 44 days and eased 3lbs by the assessor, I'd expect a better show today, especially with him appearing in many of my daily stat lists and here are just a handful of those angles...
1. Trainer Jeremy Scott's runners are 13 from 30 (43.3% SR) for 20.9pts (+69.7% ROI) here at Taunton when sent off at Evens to 6/1 since the start of 2016.
2. Of those 30 runners, today's jockey, Matt Griffiths has 6 wins from 14 (42.9% SR) for 12.2pts (+87.3% ROI)
3. In fact, Jeremy only sends on average three handicap chasers per year to this track (19 since the start of 2014) and aside from being 0/1 here so far this year, he has had a winner in each of the last six years in a record reading 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 27.1pts (+142.8% ROI), including..
4. More generally in that same 2014-20 period, Jeremy Scott's Class 4 handicap chasers sent off at 4/1 and shorter are 27 /75 (36% SR) for 31.1pts (+41.5% ROI)
5. Whilst since the start of 2017, his NH handicappers sent off at 5/1 or shorter on soft or worse ground are 27 from 86 (+31.4% SR) for 23.6pts (+27.5% ROI)
...all of which led me to...a 1pt win bet on Seeanythingyoulike @ 7/2 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Hills at 8.10am Tuesday with plenty of 10/3 BOG elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Taunton
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
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