1.20 Kempton : Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG fell at 3/1 (Raced keenly, led until fell 10th)
Friday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG
...in an 11-runner, Class 4, All Weather Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m1½f on tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner...
Why?...
Simon Crisford's three-year-old handicap debutant was a winner on his most recent start.
Let's break that down:
Crisford with handicap debutants is 16 from 62, 14 further places (25.8%, A/E 1.15, IV 2.59) in the last two years
With handicap debutants at Wolverhampton, he is 4 from 9, three further places (44.44%, +14.63, A/E 2.09, IV 4.29)
His overall Wolver handicap record in the last five years is an impressive 14 from 45, 13 further places (31.11%, +26.08, A/E 1.3, IV 3.01)
With last time out winners, Crisford is 28 from 109 in the last two years (22 further places). That's 25.69% winners, +1.27, A/E 1.00, IV 1.34.
Classic Design is a son of Pivotal, whose progeny perform well on the all-weather:
In the last two years, they are 54 from 355 (78 further places), for +7.76 (A/E 1.01, IV 1.47), with three-year-olds winning at about 20%.
And, if you don't mind mashing these things together, Pivotal progeny aged three in Wolverhampton handicaps are 11 from 38 (5 further places, +34.78, A/E 1.68, IV 2.77)
Classic Design does have a tricky draw in stall 11, but he was a facile winner last time and has plenty statistically in his favour...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.15pm on Boxing Day. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...
...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Wolverhampton
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
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