3.45 Doncaster : Premier D'Troice @ 11/4 BOG PU at 2/1 (Raced wide and keen, tracked leader until 4th, chased leaders, lost place and struggling 6th, weakened quickly before 4 out, tailed off and pulled up before 2 out) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gorgeous General @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, today's pick contains more than a passing nod to the Geegeez Horses for Courses report, that highlighted the potential suitability of the task ahead for this 5 yr old gelding who comes here in great form having won both his last two outings.

Both wins were here at Southwell, both in Class 6 handicaps and both under today's jockey, William Carver who again claims a useful 5lbs. The only difference between the two wins was that the first (30 days ago) was over 5f, whilst 16 days ago it was a 6f course and distance win.

With so much in common between those wins and today's contest, I'd fully expect similar tactics to employed here and with a draw in the higher half of numbers, the Geegeez Pace/Draw tab is quite enlightening...

Now back to the horse's suitability today...

He comes here not only in good recent form, but also boasting a record of 6 wins from 16 (37.5% SR) for profits of 12.92pts (+180.8% ROI) in A/W handicaps since the start of 2019 and having made the frame a total of 12 times (75%) in those races, he really has been a model of consistency with a string of results that include of relevance today...

• 6/15 940%) for 13.92pts (+92.8%) at Class 6
• 6/14 (42.9%) for 14.92pts (+106.6%) without headgear
• 5/11 (45.5%) for 6pts (+54.5%) here at Southwell
• 5/10 (50%) for 14.31pts (+143.1%) after less than 3 weeks rest
• 5/8 (62.5%) for 9pts (+112.5%) under jockey William Carver
• 5/8 (62.5%) for 9pts (+112.5%) at odds of Evens to 4/1
• 3/5 (60%) for 11.88pts (+237.6%) after a win LTO
• and 2/5 (40%) for 2.43pts (+48.6%) going left handed ie over course and distance...

...whilst sent off at Evens to 4/1 at Class 6 here at Southwell without headgear under William Carver after less than three weeks rest, he is 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 7.39pts (+147.8% ROI) including 2 from 3 after a win LTO and 2 from 2 over this 6f course and distance.

Trainer Liam Mullaney is another of those "small string trainers" that I turn to quite often for SotD and aside from today's pick, he has done well with his other runners at this venue, albeit from a very small sample size. Numerically we're looking at 4 winners from 6 (66.6% SR) for 8.67pts (+144.5% ROI) with his other Class 6 runners here at Southwell that were sent off shorter than 5/1 since 2015.

Of those six runners, he is...

• 3/3 (100%) for 5.62pts (+187.5% ROI) with males
• 3/3 (100%) for 5.62pts (+187.5% ROI) with those aged over 4
• 2/2 (100%) for 4.24pts (+212%) with LTO winners

...and 2/2 (100%) for 4.24pts (+212%) with make LTO winners aged over 4. This admittedly small number of runners allied to the performance of today's pick should be enough to suggest a decent run for our money here...

...leading to...a 1pt win bet on Gorgeous General @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor & SkyBet at 8.05am Friday with plenty of 10/3 BOG elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

7.15 Newcastle : Watheer @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Prominent, driven to challenge over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on until no extra and lost place towards finish and beaten by two lengths)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Charlie D @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Fibresand worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5yr old gelding has won 6 of 20 (30% SR) so far, an impressive return that includes the following under today's conditions...

• 5/17 in handicaps
• 5/16 wearing a tongue tie
• 5/15 in cheekpieces
• 5/13 at 6-25 dslr
• 5/8 at 9/4 to 4/1
• 3/11  at 1m6f and beyond
• 3/10 in fields of 1-7 runners
• and 2/9 under today's jockey, Richard Kingscote...

...whilst he is 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 9.5pts (+237.2%) when sent off at 9/4 to 4/1 wearing both cheekpieces and a tongue tie in handicaps after a rest of 6-25 days. All are at 1m6f and beyond, including 2/2 in fields of 1 to 7 and 1 from 2 for Richard Kingscote.

The trainer (Tom Dascombe) / jockey partnership is a well worn farrow stat-wise, so I won't go there today, so let's find some other angles to back up the selection.

The sire, Animal Kingdom's offspring are 14 from 42 (33.3% SR) for 294.5pts (+701.3% ROI) on the Flat/AW beyond 1m3f, including of note today...

• 13/35 (37.1%) for pts (+25.7%) in handicaps
• 12/20 (60%) for 22.5pts (+112.5%) at Evens to 4/1
• 11/29 (37.9%) for 4.71pts (+16.3%) in 3-8 runner contests
• 10/26 (38.5%) for 299.9pts (+1153.4%) within 25 days of their last run
• 7/22 (31.8%) for 3.01pts (+13.7%) at 1m6f and beyond
• and 6/24 (25%) for 291.7pts (+1215.3%) from males...

..whilst those sent off at Evens to 4/1 in 3-8 runner handicaps after a break of 1-25 days are 7 from 10 (70% SR) for 13.06pts (+130.6% ROI).

And now back to the trainer, Tom Dascombe, whose record here at Southwell over the last six years is excellent at 12 wins from 43 (27.9% SR) and profits of 60.3pts represent a 140.2% return on stakes.

Despite only having less than 50 runners here in six years, there are still a whole host of profitable/relevant angles at play today, so here are "just" a dozen ways of how he got those 12 winners...

1. Males : 12/41 (29.3%) for 62.3pts (+151.9%)
2. 3-7 yr olds : 11/29 (37.9%) for 51.9pts (+179.1%)
3. Handicappers : 9/34 (26.5%) for 55.4pts (+163%)
4. His only runner here on the day : 9/27 (33.3%) for 56.8pts (+210.4%)
5. Those who raced in the previous 30 days : 9/27 (33.3%) for 48.3pts (+178.7%)
6. During Feb-April : 9/22 (40.9%) for 53.3pts (+242.1%)
7. In fields of 7-9 runners : 8/19 (42.1%) for 47.7pts (+250.9%)
8. With his only runner all day : 7/20 (35%) for 28.9pts (+145%)
9. At 7/4 to 5/1 : 7/18 (38.9%) for 13.9pts (+77.2%)
10. Under Richard Kingscote : 6/24 (25%) for 26.1pts (+108.6%)
11. In cheekpieces : 3/11 (27.3%) for 7.54pts (+68.6%)
12. And those with just 1 previous run in the preceding 90 days are 3/9 (33.3%) for 22.8pts (+253.5%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Charlie D @ 10/3 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.45am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

3.55 Doncaster : My Old Gold @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Raced wide, held up, not fluent 1st, headway 12th, ridden and weakened after 3 out)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bolt N Brown @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Sorry for the delay this morning. We'd a storm and subsequent power cut overnight here. I'd already gone through the cards last night before bed, so it was just a case of checking prices this morning, so rest assured, I've put the normal amount of work into finding today's pick, but as we're against the clock, I'll keep the write-up brief...

...about a 4 yr old filly whose last two runs were a runner-up finish here on the A/W over 2m 0.5f ahead of a win LTO over hurdles in a Class 4, 2m contest at Ludlow. This might suggest she's a better hurdler than on the A/W, where she runs at Class 6, but we'll see!

Her yard is going well enough of late, Gay Kelleway's A/W runners are 5/21 (23.8% SR) for 41.4pts (+197.3% ROI) over the past month, including...

• 3/11 (27.3%) for 11.43pts (+103.9%) here at Southwell
• 3/9 (33.3%) for 19.94pts (+221.5%) at Class 6
• and 2/4 (50%) for 8.74pts (+218.4%) at Class 6 here at Southwell...

...which is fairly unsurprising to me, as her record here at this venue since 2016 stands at 16 winners from 91 (17.6% SR) for 44.05pts (+48.4% ROI) backed blindly and here's how she got those 16 winners based on today's conditions...

• 14 came from 70 (20%) in December-March for 57.55pts (+82.2%)
• 13 came from 70 (18.6%) over 6f to 1m4f for 52pts (+74.3%)
• 13 came from 67 (19.4%) at Class 5/6 for 22.9pts (+33.9%)
• 12 came from 62 (19.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 for 25pts (+40.4%)
• 6 came from 14 (42.9%) sent off at Evens to 10/3 for 8.02pts (+57.3%)
• 5 came from 18 (27.8%) 8-runner contests for 39.57pts (+219.9%)
• and 3 came from 11 (27.3%) races over this 1m4f C&D for 25.05pts (+227.7%)

...whilst at Class 5/6 over 6f to 1m4f during December to March for prizes of less than £4k, those 91 original Gay Kelleway Southwell runners are 9 from 37 (24.3% SR) for 35.05pts (+94.7% ROI) including 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 4.23pts (+140.8%) over this 1m4f C&D...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Bolt N Brown @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 9.30am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I've a doctor's appointment at 8.00am Friday, so the selection will appear when I get back.

4.30 Carlisle : Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG 4th at 6/1 (Held up, slow 1st, outpaced 11th, hanging left before 4 out, soon well beaten)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

8.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Social City @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced 4 yr old gelding is 313 in handicaps so far, having won over this trip prior to a narrow (0.75 length) defeat over 2m at Lingfield 27 days ago at this grade, despite being forced to run quite wide. The winner has since stepped up two classes and won again, so hopefully that form pans out for us here.

Hayley Turner is in the saddle today and has been quietly impressive in A/W handicaps since coming back and since the end of July 2018, she has 22 winners from 156 (14.1% SR) for 71.2pts (+45.6% ROI) and she has been in excellent form more recently winning 6 of 17 (35.3%) for 51.4pts (+302.1%) over the last 4 weeks.

Trainer Tony Carroll's runners are 12 from 57 (21.1% SR) for 31.5pts (+55.3% ROI) when sent off at Evens to 11/1 in A/W handicaps of 1m6f and beyond since the start of 2016, including...

• 8/27 (29.6%) for 33.3pts (+123.3%) during December to April
• 7/29 (24.1%) for 18.8pts (+64.9%) at Class 6
• 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.7pts (+89.5%) at Class 6 during December to April
• and 2 from 7 (28.6%) for 5.63pts (+80.4%) here at Southwell...

...where more specifically, he is 10 from 24 (41.7% SR) for 17.8pts (+74% ROI) at odds of Evens to 9/2 since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...

• 9/19 (47.4%) for 18.2pts (+95.8%) after less than 4 weeks rest
• 8/12 (66.6%) for 22.6pts (+188.6%) in fields of 9-12 runners
• 7/12 (58.3%) for 13.8pts (+114.9%) with 3-4 yr olds
• 8/9 (88.9%) for 25.6pts (+284.8%) in fields of 9-12 runners after less than 4 weeks rest
• 7/10 (70%) for 15.79pts (+157.9%) with 3-4 yr olds after less than 4 weeks rest
• 6/8 (75%) for 15.2pts (+190.1%) with 3-4 yr olds in fields of 9-12 runners
• and 6 from 6 (100%) for 17.2pts (+286.7%) with 3-4 yr olds in fields of 9-12 runners after less than 4 weeks rest ...

All the above 7 facts also apply to Tony's runner, Luscifer, who is currently priced at 11/8 BOG in the 5.30 race here today...

...but the decision is...a 1pt win bet on Social City @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & Unibet at 8.00am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

5.20 Newcastle : Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 5/2 (Held up in rear, smooth headway near side of group halfway, chased leaders 3f out, ridden inside final 2f, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Liamba @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old mare wasn't at her best last time out 15 days ago, when beaten here over course and distance, but she did win her two previous outings and there's every chance she'll bounce back today on a track she loves.

Her record here at Southwell stands at 3 wins and 7 further places from 13 efforts, including the following of relevance today...

• 3 wins, 4 places from 10 when sent off shorter than 9/1
• 3 wins, 3 places from 9 off a mark of 61-70
• 3 wins, 3 places from 8 after 15-30 days rest
• and 2 wins, 2 places from 7 at Class 5

...whilst she's 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 7.3pts (+121.6% ROI) at sub-9/1 odds off a mark of 61-70 returning from 15-30 days off track, including 2 from 5 (40%) for 5.7pts (+114%) at Class 5.

Her trainer, David O'Meara is flying right now, with 3 winners from 6 in the last seven days and an overall 32% strike rate for the past month (8 from 25) and he does have a decent record in this type of contest.

Since the start of 2017, his Class 5 runners competing over 6-7 furlongs here at Southwell have won 6 of 20 (30% SR) for profits of 4.95pts (+24.75% ROI), including...

• 5/14 (35.7%) for 6.2pts (+44.3%) in fields of fewer than 10 runners
• 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.39pts (+85.3%) from females
• 4/11 (36.4%) for 7.43pts (+67.5%) since the start of 2019
• 4/10 (40%) for 5.26pts (+52.6%) during January to May
• and 3/9 (33.3%) for 1.5pts (+16.7%) with those returning from 6-20 days rest...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 9/2 BOG as was available from Coral, Ladbrokes & Unibet at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

7.00 Newcastle : Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 2/1 (Awkward start, in rear, ridden over 1f out, went never dangerous 4th inside final furlong)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ Maidens over 1m on Fibresand worth £3,429 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, with potential SotD picks thin on the ground today (my 5-runner shortlist was this one, an 8/1 shot and three at 11/10 or shorter), we're entering fairly unfamiliar territory in a Maiden Handicap and we'll be taking on a fairly warm favourite, but hey : one of these has to break their duck today!

Obviously this 7-runner contest has no previous winners, but our 4 yr old gelding has at least finished 2423 (all under today's jockey) in his last four starts, so he's bringing some sort of form to the table, including a runner-up finish on his only previous effort on this track/surface. Blinkers are applied today for the first-time in a (well-tried by his trainer) bid to eke out a bit more from the horse.

Despite now being 0 from 18, he has a 50% place strike rate (4/8) under today's jockey Shane Kelly, who himself is 9/25 (36% SR) for 16.65pts (+66.6% ROI) on horses sent off shorter than 7/1 here at Southwell since the start of 2018 and these include...

• 8/18 (44.4%) for 21.82pts (+121.2%) in 6-11 runner contests
• 6/12 (50%) for 13.28pts (+110.6%) at Class 5
• 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.02pts (+109.3%) over this 1m C&D
• 5/9 (55.6%) for 14.44pts (+160.4%) in Class 5, 6-11 runner contests
• 4/8 (50%) for 13.19pts (+164.8%) in 6-11 runner C&D contests
• 4/6 (66.6%) for 10.13pts (+168.9%) in Class 5 C&D races
• and 3/5 (60%) for 9.3pts (+186%) in Class 5, 6-11 runner contests over this 1m course and distance

And in that same 2018-now time-frame, trainer Tony Carroll's runners at this venue are 16 from 75 (21.3% SR) for 246.2pts (+328.2% ROI), figures skewed by a couple of decent priced winners, but the SR is still impressive nonetheless and the figures are still profitable without the "biggies" and include...

• 9/41 (22%) for 56.9pts (+138.8%) after a break of 11-30 days
• 6/23 (26.1%) for 98.5pts (+428.1%) during February & March
• 6/19 (31.6%) for 46.4pts (+244.3%) at Class 5
• 6/16 (37.5%) for 166.7pts (+1041.8%) with 4 yr olds
• 5/9 (55.6%) for 57.4pts (+637.4%) in blinkers
• and 3/5 (60%) for 52.6pts (+1052.1%) in first-time blinkers

That first-time blinkers stat is interesting, because further digging tells me that since the start of 2016, Tony Carroll's runners sporting the blinkers for the first time have won 8 of 27 races (29.6% SR) for 112.7pts profit at an ROI of some 417.3% and that's probably enough for today about a 0/18 maiden...

...to suggest...a 1pt win bet on Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor, Marathon & Paddy Power at 8.10am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

7.30 Kempton : Ilhabela Fact @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/4 (Prominent, effort on inside over 2f out, every chance from over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding got back to winning ways when scoring at Newcastle last time out 13 days ago under today's jockey Barry McHugh, who is riding really well right now. In fact, he has made the frame in 7 of 10 rides over the past fortnight, winning 3 times and since the start of 2017 is 18/89 (20.2% SR) for 38.9pts (+43.7% ROI) on the A/W here at Southwell, including of relevance today...

• 17/76 (22.4%) for 49.1pts (+64.6%) during October-March
• 16/78 (20.5%) for 38.9pts (+49.9%) in races worth less than £4,000
• 14/75 (18.7%) for 33.7pts (+44.9%) in handicaps
• 14/61 (23%) for 47pts (+77.1%) with male runners
• and 4/9 (44.4%) for 10.23pts (+113.7%) from LTO winners

...whilst he is 8/36 (22.2% SR) for 41.5pts (+115.2% ROI) on male handicappers chasing less than £4k during October to March, including 2/4 (50%) for 2.93pts (+73.3%) on LTO winners.

Meanwhile, trainer Michael Herrington seems to have a knack of getting his small string of horses to win back to back races, invariably sending them back out fairly soon after a win to strike whilst the iron is hot, so to speak. Since the start of 2016, his LTO winners are 10 from 44 (22.7% SR) for 26.4pts at an ROI of 60.1% in UK handicap contests, from which he is/they are...

• 10/36 (27.8%) for 34.4pts (+95.6%) within 25 days of their last run
• 9/33 (27.3%) for 32.3pts (+98%) on the A/W
• 9/32 (28.1%) for 24.6pts (+76.9%) shorter than 7/1
• 9/29 (31%) for 27.6pts (+95.2%) in races worth less than £4k
• 9/28 (32.1%) for 37.3pts (+133.3%) in fields of 9-13 runners
• 6/19 (31.6%) for 23pts (+121.1%) within a fortnight of their last run
• and 6/17 (35.3%) for 19.3pts (+113.8%) at Class 6

...and those sent off sub-7/1 on the A/W chasing less than £4k in fields of 9-13 runners within 25 days of their last run are 8 from 14 (57.1% SR) for 37.5pts (+267.9% ROI) profit, including 5 from 7 (71.4%) for 28.26pts (+403.7%) over the last two years...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 8.05am Wednesday morning with a smattering of 10/3 around too, but as always please check your BOG status. There was a drift in the market in the hour after I went live, so you should all be able to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

4.00 Warwick : George Valentine @ 7/2 BOG 16th at 4/1 (Prominent, lost place 3f out)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 8-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Since mid-September, which was the last time of any his seven rivals won a race, this 6 yr old gelding has had ten consecutive top 4 finishes (9 in the first three home), culminating in a win over this class, course and distance ten days ago.

That win took him to 4 wins and 5 places from 14 starts over the track and trip, including..

• 4 wins, 4 places from 11 at Class 6
• 3 wins, 4 places from 10 in blinkers
• and 3 wins, 3 places from 7 under today's jockey, Jonathan Fisher (all at C6, whilst wearing blinkers)

Moreover, since the start of 2016 in A/W handicaps here at Southwell, horses sent off at odds ranging from 11/10 to 7/1 within 30 days of an LTO win at the same class, course and distance are 37 from 112 (33% SR) for 37.1pts (+33.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

• 31/90 (34.4%) for 40.7pts (+45.2%) from male runners
• 24/72 (33.3%) for 28.4pts (+39.5%) at Class 6
• 19/51 (37.3%) for 26.4pts (+51.8%) during January/February
• 17/37 (45.9%) for 44.4pts (+119.9%) over 6/7 furlongs
• 15/33 (45.5%) for 26.05pts (+78.9%) with 6/7 yr olds
• 14/35 (40%) for 19pts (+54.3%) within 10 days of their last run
• and 5/14 (35.7%) for 16.7pts (+119.4%) over this 7f C&D...

...whilst Class 6 males racing over 6/7f during December to February are 6 from 13 (46.2% SR) for 23.1pts (+177.4% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Monday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

4.00 Warwick : George Valentine @ 7/2 BOG 16th at 4/1 (Prominent, lost place 3f out)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 8-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Since mid-September, which was the last time of any his seven rivals won a race, this 6 yr old gelding has had ten consecutive top 4 finishes (9 in the first three home), culminating in a win over this class, course and distance ten days ago.

That win took him to 4 wins and 5 places from 14 starts over the track and trip, including..

• 4 wins, 4 places from 11 at Class 6
• 3 wins, 4 places from 10 in blinkers
• and 3 wins, 3 places from 7 under today's jockey, Jonathan Fisher (all at C6, whilst wearing blinkers)

Moreover, since the start of 2016 in A/W handicaps here at Southwell, horses sent off at odds ranging from 11/10 to 7/1 within 30 days of an LTO win at the same class, course and distance are 37 from 112 (33% SR) for 37.1pts (+33.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

• 31/90 (34.4%) for 40.7pts (+45.2%) from male runners
• 24/72 (33.3%) for 28.4pts (+39.5%) at Class 6
• 19/51 (37.3%) for 26.4pts (+51.8%) during January/February
• 17/37 (45.9%) for 44.4pts (+119.9%) over 6/7 furlongs
• 15/33 (45.5%) for 26.05pts (+78.9%) with 6/7 yr olds
• 14/35 (40%) for 19pts (+54.3%) within 10 days of their last run
• and 5/14 (35.7%) for 16.7pts (+119.4%) over this 7f C&D...

...whilst Class 6 males racing over 6/7f during December to February are 6 from 13 (46.2% SR) for 23.1pts (+177.4% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Monday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

1.35 Ayr : Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up in rear, headway into 3rd approaching 4 out, left in well held 2nd place 2 out, dropped to 3rd at the last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5,  Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f  on heavy (soft in places) ground worth £3,184 to the winner...

Why?...

No win in eleven for this for this 5 yr old gelding is probably not the first thing you wanted me to tell you about today's pick, but I'd quickly add that a run of results reading 334232 does suggest that a win is coming and isn't out of turn! In fact, he was only beaten by a head over course and distance off this mark, under today's jockey (Kieran O'Neill) LTO, 9 days ago.

He was headed in the final strides and trainer Robyn Brisland is now applying cheekpieces in a bid to eke a little more out of him in the finish to help him improve what is actually a respectable record for these type of lower grade A/W runners who seem to just take turns at beating each other.

To date he is 4 from 22 (18.2% SR) for 17.57pts (+79.9% ROI) despite his recent run of placed efforts, but what I found interesting looking at this profile was that all four wins have come under a set of conditions prevalent today ie...

•  off a mark (OR) of 50-65
• trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
• A/W handicap races
• left handed tracks
• standard going
• wearing a tongue tie...

...and when all of the above have been present as they are today, he is 4 from 10 (40% SR) for 29.57pts (+295.7% ROI) profit, including...

• 3/7 (42.9%) for 16.25pts (+232.2%) here at Southwell
• 2/6 (33.3%) for 20.4pts (+342.3%) under Kieran O'Neill
• 2/6 (33.3%) for 6.75pts (+112.6%) over course and distance
• 2/5 (40%) for 8.03pts (+160.6%) after a top 3 finish LTO
• and 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.75pts (+325.1%) within 10 days of his last run.

Those A/W stats aren't too surprising, if you knew that his sire is North Light, whose offspring are 10 from 43 (23.3% SR) for 51.2pts (+119.1% ROI) on the All-Weather over the last four years, including of relevance today...

• 10/39 (25.6%) for 55.2pts (+141.5%) with male runners
• 10/38 (26.3%) for 56.2pts (+147.9%) over trips of 8.5 to 12 furlongs
• 10/37 (27%) for 57.2pts (+154.6%) on Standard going
• 10/35 (28.6%) for 59.2pts (+169.1%) from 4-8 yr olds
• 8/33 (24.2%) for 47.8pts (+145%) in handicaps
• and 6/16 (37.5%) for 38.2pts (+238.9%) at 6-15 days since they last ran...

...whilst 4-8 yr old males at 8.5-12 furlongs on Standard going are 10/30 (33.3% SR) for 64.2pts (+214% ROI), including...

• 8/25 (32%) for 55.8pts (+223.2%) in handicaps
• 6/13 (46.2%) for 41.2pts (+317.2%) at 6-15 dslr
• and 5/10 (50%) for 40.1pts (+401%) in handicaps at 6-15 dslr...

...which directed me to...a 1pt win bet on Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Ladbrokes (and also Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.00am on Tuesday. (10/3 was widely available at 9.05am, whilst Coral were at 7/2.) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!