5.45 Wolverhampton : Bell Heather @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 6/1 (Chased leaders, led over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on polytrack worth £12,291 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding who has 4 wins from 14 on the A/W so far, including...

• 4/12 at 9.5-10 furlongs
• 4/10 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
• 3/11 on Polytrack
• 3/8 at Class 2
• 1/2 here at Chelmsford
• 1/2 over course and distance

He is trained by William Haggas, about whom there are quite a few relevant angles at play today. If I can get this to work (others here at Geegeez are far better than I at putting graphics up), then here are just three that will help us today...

1. For 82 winners from 229 runners (35.8% SR) and 50.7pts profit at an ROI of 22.2%, including 23/49 (46.9%) for 44.1pts (+89.9%) at Class 1/2...

2. Whilst he is 26 from 91 (28.6% SR) for 11.1pts (+12.2% ROI) under the following conditions, including 21/59 (35.6%) for 31.3pts (+53.1%) on the All-Weather...

3. And for 15 winners from 28 (53.6% SR) and 35.7pts profit at an ROI of 127.4%, we have...

...all of which directed me to...a 1pt win bet on Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Chelmsford

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!