Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2020

/7 Comments/in /by

Thursday's pick was...

6.00 Chelmsford : Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Slowly into stride, held up in mid-division, headway 2f out, switched right over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, just held by a neck and a nose)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.15 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4,  A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Standard Fibresand worth £5,208 to the winner...Class 4, Standard, 4yo+, Win: £5208

Why?...

This 6 yr old USA-bred gelding was a winner LTO fifteen days ago when landing another 6f, C4, A/W hcp at Wolverhampton, causing him to be rated 3lbs higher today. But as that win came off the back of a 4-month break, he can be expected to come on for the run and the switch back to Southwell's fibresand track is another positive.

To date, he is 5/25 (20% SR) for 83.5pts (+334%) in A/W handicaps, including the following under today's conditions...

  • 5/20 (25%) for 88.5pts (+442.5%) without headgear
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 89.5pts (+471.7%) on Standard going
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 89.5pts (+471.7%) over 6 furlongs
  • 4/16 (25%) for 73.2pts (+457.5%) going left handed
  • 3/14 (21.4%) for 12.7pts (+90.7%) after a short 7-15 day break
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 1.41pts (+23.4%) here at Southwell
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 2.41pts (+48.2%) over course and distance...

...whilst he is 4/12 (33.3% SR) for 77.2pts (+643.4% ROI) going left handed over 6f on Standard with no head gear and this includes 2 from 5 (40%) over C&D, 2 from 5 (40%) within 15 dslr and 2 from 2 (100%) at Southwell within 15 dslr.

I mentioned at the top that he was USA-bred and much (possibly too much) has already been said (including by myself) about the success rate of USA-bred runners at this track. So much so that any value from just following them has now been pretty much eroded/eradicated, as those pesky bookies cotton on!

However (there's always an however!), it is worth knowing that there are still some niche angles that are profitable including this one of relevance today... 5-7 yr old, USA-bred males sent off at 12/1 or shorter over 6f to 1m in Class 4-6 A/W hcps at Southwell.

Trust me, that's more complicated in print than it is in practice and following such runners over the last three years (no reliance on old data) would have found you 20 winners from 82 (24.4% SR) and 70.8pts (+86.3% ROI) of profit and with this horse and race specifically in mind...

  • those sent off at 5/1 and shorter have a 27.5% strike rate (11 from 40)
  • those racing over this 6f course and distance have won 34.6% (9/26)
  • 6 yr olds have a 28% SR via 7 wins from 25
  • those 6f runners sent off at 5/1 max are 6/14 (42.9% SR)
  • whilst at Class 4 it's 4 from 19 for a 21% win ratio...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG as was available from best priced Unibet at 8.10am on Friday (plenty of 7/2 BOG elsewhere!). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!


Deprecated: ltrim(): Passing null to parameter #1 ($string) of type string is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 3030

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Term::$object_id is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-term.php on line 198
You might also like
Stat of the Day, 23rd March 2020
Stat of the Day, 30th January 2020
Stat of the Day, 7th February 2020
Stat of the Day, 11th March 2020
Stat of the Day, 16th March 2020
Stat of the Day, 9th January 2020

Deprecated: ltrim(): Passing null to parameter #1 ($string) of type string is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 3030

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property WP_Query::$comments_by_type is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1528
7 replies

Deprecated: ltrim(): Passing null to parameter #1 ($string) of type string is deprecated in /home/rpapi/public_html/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 3030
  6. Doshtosh
    Doshtosh says:

    A great shout and drift, Chris, though I bet with two different brands of thieves, today. One paid out at the 7/1 the other, Hill, paid out @ 4/1 plus their tiny boost as they have now changed their BOG rule, again, from midnight to 10 am, I was told nothing nor did I look carefully enough at my bets, I’m sure it’s not only me, though, that takes things for granted if they haven’t been informed otherwise. They did the same and ripped many off when they shifted their rules to midnight, so many wrote it up on Twitter, anyway, I just want to let everyone know, in case they haven’t been caught yet, please be aware. Thanks again, Chris, happy new year to you and to all the S.O.T.D. members.

  7. Chris Worrall
    Chris Worrall says:

    Lovely stuff today, not sure why there was such a pronounced drift, poor form from Hills, though. It’s things like this that are suggesting a move to a day of racing service, but let’s see how this trial pans out.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply