Stat of the Day, 7th January 2020

January 7, 2020/9 Comments/in Stat of the Day /by admin

Monday's pick was...

1.35 Ayr : Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up in rear, headway into 3rd approaching 4 out, left in well held 2nd place 2 out, dropped to 3rd at the last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f on heavy (soft in places) ground worth £3,184 to the winner...

Why?...

No win in eleven for this for this 5 yr old gelding is probably not the first thing you wanted me to tell you about today's pick, but I'd quickly add that a run of results reading 334232 does suggest that a win is coming and isn't out of turn! In fact, he was only beaten by a head over course and distance off this mark, under today's jockey (Kieran O'Neill) LTO, 9 days ago.

He was headed in the final strides and trainer Robyn Brisland is now applying cheekpieces in a bid to eke a little more out of him in the finish to help him improve what is actually a respectable record for these type of lower grade A/W runners who seem to just take turns at beating each other.

To date he is 4 from 22 (18.2% SR) for 17.57pts (+79.9% ROI) despite his recent run of placed efforts, but what I found interesting looking at this profile was that all four wins have come under a set of conditions prevalent today ie...

off a mark (OR) of 50-65
trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
A/W handicap races
left handed tracks
standard going
wearing a tongue tie...

...and when all of the above have been present as they are today, he is 4 from 10 (40% SR) for 29.57pts (+295.7% ROI) profit, including...

3/7 (42.9%) for 16.25pts (+232.2%) here at Southwell
2/6 (33.3%) for 20.4pts (+342.3%) under Kieran O'Neill
2/6 (33.3%) for 6.75pts (+112.6%) over course and distance
2/5 (40%) for 8.03pts (+160.6%) after a top 3 finish LTO
and 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.75pts (+325.1%) within 10 days of his last run.

Those A/W stats aren't too surprising, if you knew that his sire is North Light, whose offspring are 10 from 43 (23.3% SR) for 51.2pts (+119.1% ROI) on the All-Weather over the last four years, including of relevance today...

10/39 (25.6%) for 55.2pts (+141.5%) with male runners
10/38 (26.3%) for 56.2pts (+147.9%) over trips of 8.5 to 12 furlongs
10/37 (27%) for 57.2pts (+154.6%) on Standard going
10/35 (28.6%) for 59.2pts (+169.1%) from 4-8 yr olds
8/33 (24.2%) for 47.8pts (+145%) in handicaps
and 6/16 (37.5%) for 38.2pts (+238.9%) at 6-15 days since they last ran...

...whilst 4-8 yr old males at 8.5-12 furlongs on Standard going are 10/30 (33.3% SR) for 64.2pts (+214% ROI), including...

8/25 (32%) for 55.8pts (+223.2%) in handicaps
6/13 (46.2%) for 41.2pts (+317.2%) at 6-15 dslr
and 5/10 (50%) for 40.1pts (+401%) in handicaps at 6-15 dslr...

...which directed me to...a 1pt win bet on Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Ladbrokes (and also Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.00am on Tuesday. (10/3 was widely available at 9.05am, whilst Coral were at 7/2.) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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9 replies

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Everyone calls me Paul says:
January 7, 2020 at 4:21 pm

Nicely done. There was a couple of quid matched at 6.4 on Betfair, amazingly, given the way he’s done that. Cheers Chris,
Paul
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jamesfeeney says:
January 7, 2020 at 4:26 pm

Well done. Winner aside, I like the 8 am possibilities. I don’t know how everyone else feels.
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- Chris Worrall says:
  January 7, 2020 at 5:34 pm
  
  I think that the current score from our thousands of subscribers is about 6-2 in favour of the am posts. Not the largest sample size.
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  - lazyhazy says:
    January 7, 2020 at 6:10 pm
    
    I’d noticed posts were now in the Morning, assume I’ve missed an announcement somewhere? To be honest with most firms BoG now moved to day of race it probably makes sense. Well done today, won very nicely.
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    - Chris Worrall says:
      January 7, 2020 at 8:23 pm
      
      NO real announcement, because no decision has been made. We’re just trying something out.
      
      Re : today, very pleasing.
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Doshtosh says:
January 7, 2020 at 4:33 pm

Lovely shout, Chris, and the early drift was very welcome, too. Many thanks.
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winderman says:
January 7, 2020 at 6:37 pm

Well done Chris and thanks.
If we’re having a vote? I’ll go evenings.
But I understand those without BOG.
Only you will know if we’re loosing out
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beckyjan20 says:
January 7, 2020 at 8:44 pm

Just joined looking forward to some good times beating the bookie.
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Blokeshead says:
January 8, 2020 at 6:29 am

Thanks, Chris – nice shout.

PS. Mornings for me, if you’re still keeping a count, but you won’t catch me complaining if you revert to evenings.
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Stat of the Day, 7th January 2020

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