2020 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 11th March 2020)

Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!

DAY TWO: Wednesday 11th March 2020

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle   2m 5f

2019 Winner: CITY ISLAND 8/1
Trainer –Martin Brassil
Jockey – Mark Walsh

Pluses….

• 13 of the last 15 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 4 of the last 6 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• 9 of the last 11 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
• 15 of the last 19 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
• 19 of the last 25 winners won last time out
• 24 of the last 25 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• The Irish have won 10 of the last 17 (5 of last 6)
• Horses rated 150+ do well
• The last 10 winners all won at least one bumper race
• All of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• In the last 9 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 15 of the 27 top 3 places
• 19 of the last 21 were NH bred
• 13 of the last 21 had won a graded race before
• Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (6 of the last 10 had won an Irish Point)
• Respect Willie Mullins – 4 winners and 7 placed in last 15 years

Negatives….

• Only one winner aged older than 6 has won since 1974
• Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
• Horses aged 7 or older are 0 from 55 (since 1988)
• Only two of the last 34 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• The last 17 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
• Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 14 years)

14:10 RSA Chase   3m ½f

2019 Winner: TOPOFTHEGAME 4/1
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden

Pluses….

• 4 of the last 11 winners ran in the Flogas Chase (Leopardstown, 4^th Feb) that season
• The last 18 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
• 23 of the last 25 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
• Respect 7 year-olds – won 11 of the last 13 (16 of last 20)
• 9 of the last 14 winners won last time out
• 7 of the last 10 winners were beaten on their chase debut
• 7 of the last 12 winners had won a bumper before
• 6 of the last 13 favourites won (50%)
• Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
• Irish bred horses are 19 from the last 23
• 8 of the last 13 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
• 6 of the last 11 winners were trained in Ireland
• Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race
• 22 of the last 27 were novice hurdling last season
• 4 of the last 10 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
• Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (51 of the last 53 winners had)
• 10 of the last 13 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year

Negatives….

• No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
• Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
• Avoid horses that had fallen before over fences
• Avoid horses that had had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
• Just 2 of the last 20 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
• The last 21 winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26^th Dec) have lost
• Avoid unbeaten horses (only 2 of the last 20 winners)
• Mares are currently 0-from-11 in the race
• Horses in headgear are currently 0 from 29

14:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle   2m 5f

2019 Winner: WILLIAM HENRY (28/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses….

• 11 of the last 15 were 2^nd season hurdlers
• 8 of the last 10 winners had run at the Festival before
• 9 of the last 11 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
• 8 of the last 11 winners were rated in the 140’s
• 7 of the last 10 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• 11 of the last 14 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
• 18 of the last 25 winners won earlier that season
• Respect JP McManus-owned runners
• Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (5 wins in last 10 years)
• 9 of the last 18 winners were FRENCH-BRED
• 13 of the last 26 won last time out
• Respect Irish-trained runners (5 of the last 11)
• Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (last 11 winners)
• 13 of the last 15 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
• Trainer Gordon Elliott is 2 from 10
• 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)

Negatives….

• No winning favourite in the last 16 years
• Only 3 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
• Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 305 to even place since 1999
• Horses rated 150+ don’t have a great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151
• Only 4 of the last 19 winners had raced at the Festival previously
• Only 3 winners since 2000 had run more than 9 times over hurdles
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 35 runners – just two placed inside the top 2

15:30 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase   2m

2019 Winner: ALTIOR 4/11 fav
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses….

• 12 of the last 19 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
• 4 of the last 7 winners also won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
• 23 of the last 35 had won at the Festival before
• Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 8 of the last 12 between them
• Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 8
• 14 of the last 18 winners won last time out
• 16 of the last 17 winners had run that calendar year
• 36 of the last 38 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
• 15 of the last 20 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 6 of the last 13 winners were French-bred
• 11 of the last 17 winners were second season chasers
• 13 of the last 15 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
• 17 of the last 21 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 15 of the last 20 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
• 6 of the last 10 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
• Past champions do well – 13 horses have won the CC more than once

Negatives….

• Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 37 years
• Just 1 winner in last 15 had run 4+ times that season
• Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year are 1-from-30
• Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, is yet to win this race
• Just 1 of the last 18 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
• 12 of the last 14 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
• Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 46 years
• Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 41 years

16:10 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase   3m 7f

2019 Winner: TIGER ROLL 5/4 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Keith Donoghue

Pluses….

• The Irish have won 13 of the last 15 runnings
• Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
• 18 of the last 22 winners came from the top three in the betting
• 8 of the last 15 ran in the December Cross Country race here
• Respect Nina Carberry, Richard Johnson and Davy Russell-ridden horses (8 from 16 between them)
• 12 or the last 15 winners were aged 10 or younger
• Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 10 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
• Gordon Elliott has won the last 3 runnings
• 3 of the last 5 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House

Negatives….

• Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record
• Avoid horses aged 7 or younger – they are only 2 from 97
• Horses rated 126 or less have a very poor record
• Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 12
• Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13

16:50 Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle   2m ½f

2019 Winner: BAND OF OUTLAWS7/2 fav
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – J J Slevin  

Pluses….

• 10 of the last 15 winners had run just 3 times over hurdles before
• French bred horses have a good record
• Respect Fillies
• 7 of the last 9 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
• 10 of the last 15 had run in the last 25 days
• David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot and Alan King-trained horses often do well
• 6 of the last 8 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1
• 10 of the last 15 winners returned a double-figure price
• Respect horses wearing headgear
• 12 of the last 15 winners were ALL rated between 124-134
• 8 of the last 12 winners were British-trained
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 10 runnings
• 11 of the last 15 winners had won no more than once over hurdles

Negatives….

• Just 1 recent winner had last raced in January or further back
• Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 32 between them
• Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 14 (just 1 placed in top 5 too)
• Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
• No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
• Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are 0 from the last 10 years
• British-bred runners are currently 0-51

17:30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper   2m ½f

2019 Winner: ENVOI ALLEN 2/1 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jamie Codd

Pluses….

• 25 of the last 27 had won last time out (all of last 16)
• 20of the last 27 winners trained in Ireland
• Respect Irish-trained runners (20 from 36)
• 4 of the last 10 winners were won by UK-based trainers
• 18 of the last 27 came from the top 6 in the betting
• 20 of the last 27 were Irish-bred
• 10 of the last 19 winners were second season horses
• 13 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 17 of the last 27 winners aged 5 years-old
• 17 of the last 19 had their debut runs in Ireland
• 11 of the last 17 had been beaten in a race before
• 6 of the last 10 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
• Respect Willie Mullins (9 winners) – also had first three in 2018, but is just 3 from last 35 runners
• The Irish lead the British 21-7 in the race history
• Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
• 9 of the last 17 winners came from the top 3 in the betting

Negatives….

• Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
• Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
• 4 year-olds are 1 from 60 since 2000 (Cue Card)
• Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race

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