Stat of the Day, 25th February 2020

February 25, 2020/12 Comments/in Stat of the Day /by admin

Monday's pick was...

7.00 Wolverhampton : Reeves @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Led early, tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, kept on to take 2nd place towards finish) : three runners-up on the bounce for us now!

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mamoo @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Heavy ground worth £4,549 to the winner...

Why?...

Similar to yesterday, in that I've little of substance to choose from at the right price, but the shortness of the fav here means we'll get a decent price about this 7 yr old gelding, who has finished 312 in his last three outings, having only gone down by two lengths over course and distance in a stronger/higher class race last time out 25 days ago after winning here again over C&D two starts ago.

He's by Sir Percy, whose offspring are 11 from 50 (22% SR) for 12.78pts (+25.6% ROI) over trips of 3m to 3m5f since the start of 2017, including of relevance here...

10/40 (25%) for 19.27pts (+48.2%) with 5-7 yr olds
9/39 (23.1%) for 15.9pts (+40.8%) over hurdles
5/13 (38.5%) for 15.53pts (+119.5%) during the first quarter of the year
and 4/12 (33.3%) for 2.74pts (+22.8%) on soft or heavy ground

He's also running out of a yard that knows how to train stayers, as trainer Sam England's record at 3m1½f to 3m3½f currently stands at 10 from 31 (32.3% SR) for 60.8pts (+196.1% ROI) and these include of note today...

10/28 (35.7%) for 63.8pts (+227.8%) from 6-10 yr olds
10/25 (40%) for 66.8pts (+267.2%) ridden by Jonathan England
9/22 (40.9%) for 52.1pys (+236.6%) from December to April
9/21 (42.9%) for 67.7pts (+322.4%) at 11-45 dslr
8/17 (47.1%) for 26.6pts (+156.5%) at odds of 7/1 and shorter
7/19 (36.8%) for 54.1pts (+284.5%) in fields of 7-10 runners
7/14 (50%) for 22.4pts (+159.8%) after a top 3 finish LTO
5/13 (38.5%) for 25.1pts (+193.3%) over 3m1½f
4/13 (30.8%) for 45.5pts (+350.2%) at Class 4
and 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.4pts (+191.3%) here at Catterick, all over today's course and distance...

...whilst Sam + Jonathan + 3m1½f to 3m3½f + 6-10 yr olds + Dec-April + 11/30 dslr + 7/1 max odds = 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) for 29.5pts (+268.3%) and these runners include 6/10 after a top 3 finish LTO, 4/6 at this trip, 4/5 here at Catterick (all over C&D) and 1/1 at Class 4. Those 11 also include Ask Paddy who is currently (8.50am) priced at 11/4 BOG to win the previous 4.15 race on this card...

...but my selection is...a 1pt win bet on Mamoo @ 11/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power & Unibet at 8.00am Tuesday,but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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12 replies

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Everyone calls me Paul says:
February 25, 2020 at 5:14 pm

A very nice price, Chris. Ta,
Paul
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jamesfeeney says:
February 25, 2020 at 5:27 pm

Tasty winner ( or 2 if you Ask Paddy) thanks
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- Chris Worrall says:
  February 25, 2020 at 6:35 pm
  
  Yes, a nice little 35/1 double. This happens quite often that the angles I use for SotD will then provide another winner on the day even if my pick gets beat.
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Doshtosh says:
February 25, 2020 at 5:38 pm

At last, well done, Chris. A nice drift to make it sweeter,
one slightly bitter pill, there’s always something, for God’s
sake, today was the first day I reduced the stake b 33%
but it’s hard to know when one needs to “tweak” things,
anyway, it was a great result for you and all of us. Many thanks.

J.
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Bazcoe says:
February 25, 2020 at 5:47 pm

Nice winner. Wasn’t on it as taken a sabbatical because of the current conditions. Nonetheless you continue to provide a selection when I guess at times you would rather abstain. I have had excellent returns over the years following your selections so thank you.
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- Chris Worrall says:
  February 25, 2020 at 6:37 pm
  
  It’s a judgement call, Baz, when to stop, I suppose.
  
  We’re committed to providing a pick every day, 6 days a week, but yes, there have been several days of late when I’d rather have kept my powder dry.
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  - jamesfeeney says:
    February 25, 2020 at 6:57 pm
    
    I don’t think people would mind an occasional no bet day? It’s not as if it’s Stat of every day! Just a thought.
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Blokeshead says:
February 25, 2020 at 8:06 pm

Saved my day – thanks Chris.
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- Chris Worrall says:
  February 25, 2020 at 9:58 pm
  
  Been a long time between drinks, I’m still thirsty…
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  - Blokeshead says:
    February 26, 2020 at 12:36 pm
    
    At the risk of being seen to tempt fate, you have been known on more than one occasion in the past to be a London Bus Merchant! 🙂
    
    Here’s hoping….
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    - Chris Worrall says:
      February 26, 2020 at 8:41 pm
      
      Not today, sadly, she wasn’t interested.
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winderman says:
February 25, 2020 at 8:39 pm

thanks Chris.
for me, it’s bet and forget.
surely the judgement call would be to raise the stake
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Stat of the Day, 25th February 2020

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