Stat of the Day : An Overview

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1. 

   bobbob says:

   April 10, 2020 at 11:04 am

   Hi Chris, all very interesting.

   Some years ago I started looking at Nursery Handicaps, on the basis that many other punters give them a wide berth !

   Time constraints prevented me from completing this excercise, but the basic premise was that any 2yo good enough to win first or second time out would be good enough to win first time up in a Nursery handicap, and therefore creating an edge.

   It would be good to know if this angle works out, as I haven’t seen anything else that determines an angle in Nurseries.

   Best regards,

   Bobbob

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   • 

     Chris Worrall says:

     April 13, 2020 at 8:32 am

     That’s certainly an interesting thought, Bob. I’ll take a look and see if anything stands out.

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2. 

   davevart says:

   April 10, 2020 at 2:30 pm

   I would welcome discussion on course variables, particularly any evaluation and weighting factors applied to course run-ins eg distances, NH flights and stiffness ie uphill

   Regards
   Dave

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   • 

     Chris Worrall says:

     April 13, 2020 at 8:34 am

     Hi Dave,

     As useful as that might be, it’s not an area that I’ve really got much information about personally with it being less quantifiable than the type of data I normally work with.

     That’s not to say another member of the team won’t have something of value to add to the discussion.

     Chris

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3. 

   David says:

   April 10, 2020 at 3:12 pm

   Do you think racing will be the same when it resumes, as all the horses will have had a long time off? Or do you think it might be worth leaving it alone for a couple of weeks to let the form settle down a bit?

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   • 

     Chris Worrall says:

     April 13, 2020 at 8:36 am

     Difficult to say, of course, but I’d expect those trainers adept at getting a horse ready from a long layoff to still be good at doing that. There’s still a small possibility of racing in May, so trainers who well in May normally would hope to go well again this year.

     All assuming, of course, they’ve been able to train their horses normally.

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4. 

   therams1962 says:

   April 12, 2020 at 9:56 pm

   Trainers that do well with horses after a lay off and the best circumstances in which to consider a bet would be very apt .

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   • 

     Chris Worrall says:

     April 13, 2020 at 8:30 am

     Hi John,

     I believe Jon Shenton already has plans for an article this week on horses coming off a break, but I’m not sure what the second part meant.

     Chris

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     • 

       therams1962 says:

       April 13, 2020 at 9:40 pm

       Hi Chris the second part meaning is when we have identified a trainer that does well with horses after a break are there any further filters ,handicaps only non handicaps only and so on .

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       • 

         Chris Worrall says:

         April 14, 2020 at 9:23 am

         Ah, OK. I wasn’t sure if it was a separate second question!
         I’d assume that Jon will highlight the conditions that work best for his analysis.

         I’m currently working on some trainers to follow with their 2 yr olds on debut. Initially, I’ll have a list of trainers for you to follow and then I’ll back up that research with a more in-depth analysis of each trainer that makes the list.

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5. 

   Paul says:

   April 14, 2020 at 11:32 am

   Hi Chris
   I an relitively new to Geegeez and I am still getting to know the query tool and was wondering if there is there a jockey bias for distances of races or weight carrying like with Willie Carson riding a horse carrying under 8st back in the day but all the same a very interesting read

   Thanks
   Paul

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   • 

     Chris Worrall says:

     April 14, 2020 at 11:54 pm

     Hi Paul,

     I’m really not sure, but the Query Tool can work all that out for you.

     Chris

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6. 

   David says:

   April 16, 2020 at 10:14 am

   Hi Chris.
   When you say “advised profits of 526 points”, does that mean profits to advised prices? And is it one bet = one point?
   Also, would you consider dropping your minimum price of 5/2 to a lower figure to improve the strike rate a bit (assuming the lower priced selections are profitable of course). 5/2 seems quite high for a minimum price to me.
   Otherwise, I’m very interested in this stat of the day, as I’m looking for something to add to the systems I already follow. Thanks.

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   • 

     Chris Worrall says:

     April 16, 2020 at 10:26 am

     Hi David,

     Interesting question, thanks. The advised profit is the profit gained from backing at the same prices I advise on a 1pt level stake win bet. The prices are always quoted with at least major firms offering the price and are posted just after 8am, allowing those with BOG options to take advantage of those too.

     5/2 is of course an arbitrary figure, but I’m looking for value. That’s not to say however, I wouldn’t take 2/1 if I felt my horse should be priced at Evens, but I’ve got to post horses at a price that can take a bit of battering.

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     • 

       David says:

       April 16, 2020 at 10:30 pm

       OK; thank you Chris. Are most of your selections heavily backed, then? If so, there’s no point in me bothering, as I’m not going to be putting them on at 8am.

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       • 

         Chris Worrall says:

         April 17, 2020 at 9:07 am

         They’re not heavily backed, but they do often move in price (sometimes up, sometimes down) and I like to leave enough room in the price to account for movement whilst still making it worthwhile.

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